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Krispy Kreme Doughnuts, Inc. Message Board

  • sdenver sdenver Jan 17, 2013 8:17 AM Flag

    Everybody settle down

    Too much fast money in this stock now. When I was buying in the 3's it was silent on here. Stock is not cheap anymore. You have to look at the gaap numbers or give them credit for large tax asset...not both. So let's look based on gaap going to earn 30 cents or so . PE in the 30's. The tax asset is worth maybe $1.50. So really paying $10...PE still in the 30's. You could look at non gaap 45 cents and not give them credit for tax asset. This is flawed because eventually tax asset will go away. I love the company but hard to get excited about value here. They are setup to grow very nicely but much of that is now priced in IMO. I will say the way they are growing same store sales though they could keep increasing numbers. I am a value guy and does not excite me anymore. It is a momentum stock now and that is not my game. The dark chocolate donut is amazing though!!

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    • It was a value play back in the $3s. Looks like you and I have both been in this stock from about the same time ... 2009 or so. I agree to a point. Except now it's a growth stock. The value phase took some 3 years to play out. The growth phase will similarly take about 3-4 years to play out, so I think this is still a good solid play -- but for a slightly different reason now. Calling it a momentum play, to me, suggests a run that is not driven by improving fundamentals (sales, profitability)... PE expansion, etc. I dont think that is the case here at all. I also partly agree with you on the tax thing. That has to be looked at in terms of valuation as just that... an asset. Sort of think of it as contributing to net cash in a way.

      • 1 Reply to privatesurfing12
      • You are both correct...

        It WAS a VALUE play 4 years ago. It is NOW a NEW GROWTH Play.

        This quote somes it up and is SPOT on!

        "Except now it's a growth stock. The value phase took some 3 years to play out. The growth phase will similarly take about 3-4 years to play out, so I think this is still a good solid play -- but for a slightly different reason now. Calling it a momentum play, to me, suggests a run that is not driven by improving fundamentals (sales, profitability)... PE expansion, etc. I dont think that is the case here at all."

        Wall Street likes a good deal (Value Play at $3)...

        But it REALLY LOVES a GROWTH PLAY!

        And KKD is now - a NEW Growth Play! And when comparing to peers it is STILL a VALUE play.

        Just look at the Tim Hortons Comps, The Starbucks Comps, The Dunkin Donuts Comps, The Peets Takeover, The Teavana Takeover.

        KKD is still undervalued to the tune of 35% to 60% when compared to the others.

 
KKD
17.49-0.13(-0.74%)Apr 17 4:02 PMEDT

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