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Krispy Kreme Doughnuts, Inc. Message Board

  • fisk007 fisk007 Jan 21, 2013 3:29 PM Flag

    Point Made

    Without sounding like I am crediting Cramer with ANYTHING...

    The SIMPLE point he made was that KKD is STILL trading at a discount to it's growth rate.

    Simply put - talk of fair value doesn't seem to begin until it trades at 25 times it's estimated upcoming annual earnings estimate of $.56 per share which is $14 per share.

    AND...the point he made was...THAT $14 merely reflects fair value based upon projected growth rate. NEW GROWTH COMPANIES at this stage GENERALLLY trade at a PREMIUM to the growth rate.

    Thus a 28 PE or a 30 PE is completely possible if not probable.

    AND...

    Is $.56 per share REALLY accurate? That represents approximately $40 Million +/- in operating earnings.

    They just reported $9.2 Million in the November Earnings Report.

    Wouldn't doubt the TRUE earnings picture is closer to $44 to $46 Million in 2013.

    Closer to $.64 to $.66 per share.

    Applying a 25 P/E to that number is a $16.25 Target

    Applying a higher (and possible) 30 PE to that estimate is a $19.50 Target.

    These numbers are one more reason that IF...IF there is any truth to a possible near term acquisition HIGH TEENS seem to be a good place to start.

    AND - it is reason why mid to high teens ARE NOT out of the question in the DAYS and WEEKS ahead while the low $20's are NOT out of the question in the Months ahead.

 
KKD
18.83+0.32(+1.73%)Apr 20 4:04 PMEDT