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Krispy Kreme Doughnuts, Inc. Message Board

  • fatbgr fatbgr May 1, 2000 8:09 PM Flag

    KREM DD: Time to Short?

    I am new to this board

    I love the
    doughnuts (hot - they suck cold)

    I took a look at
    their 5 year Balance Sheet.
    Even if you throw out
    the $9.4 Million in restructuring in 1999, their EPS
    growth for the last 5 years is 19% and 2000 was actually
    lower than 1999 (again, without the 1 time charge). I
    don't know much about fundamental analysis (I do TA
    usually), but it sure looks like this price is built on a
    shaky foundation.

    I think the price is ripe to
    short. But what concerns me is that 75% of the stock is
    held by the company folks and I suspect that they will
    be less likely to sell, even out this outrageous
    multiple. I doubt most fund managers, in contrast, would be
    caught dead with a 100 P/E restraurant
    company.

    Has anyone else out there tried shorting a company
    with a major of the shares still held by the
    employees? Did it take longer for the price to drop?

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • Consider valium to go along with your
      doughnuts

      BTW: This is great time to buy KREM. I suggest you put
      in a market order for 1000+ shares. It can't go any
      lower, right? Please let this board know when you do so.

    • <EOM>

    • I tried to short 200, then 100, then 50 (!)
      shares today

      Everytime it was rejected because
      there were no shares available to short

      I feel
      like I am at the station, watching the caboose of the
      train quickly disappearing into the sunset (or in this
      case, off the cliff).

    • who sits on his enormous, lard ass licking up
      glaze crumbs off the table. By the way, you stink, too.
      Shower once in a while, why don't you? sorry, dickhead.


      You're a fucking dickhead because you have nothing nice
      to say about others who posted on this board. You're
      comments have been meaningless and antaganizing. That is
      why you are a DICKHEAD.

    • <EOM>

    • dickheads would buy into this sorry piece of shit. dickhead. this dumbfuck is going to crush your little dickhead, dickhead.

    • though, i am long at 32 1/4. What is your obsession with dicks and assholes anyways? have you stepped out yet? What a DUMBFUCK!

    • say little dick, asshole.

      I tried shorting
      at 5 minutes before closing at work and couldn't
      wait for confirmation. So I called back later through
      touchtrade to find that it was rejected. By the way, you
      must be long. Is taht why you're so pissed off at
      short's posts, dickhead? Don't worry, I'm shorting.

    • >I think the price is ripe to short. But what
      concerns me is that 75% of the stock is held by the
      company folks and I suspect that they will be less likely
      to sell, even out this outrageous multiple. I doubt
      most fund managers, in contrast, would be caught dead
      with a 100 P/E restraurant company.

      Check out
      Martha Stewart Living (MSO). It has (had?) something
      like 85% insider ownership (and Martha Stewart has a
      big chunk). An extremely hyped stock with a huge P/E,
      it traded at 47 the first few days after the IPO.
      Now (after about 5 months) is getting closer to its
      "correct value", right now it is about 16. MSO is
      obviously not a restaurant, but it satisfies your criteria.
      Nevertheless, it didn't take long for that stock to fall below
      half price of its high.

      • 2 Replies to sleeplessdad
      • What does the company do?
        Bill Clinton's
        favorite doughnuts are made by Krispy Kreme Doughnut. The
        company makes a variety of doughnuts -- including its
        famous Original Glazed -- at its 1950's-styled coffee
        shops, which feature direct views of the doughnut-making
        process. Krispy Kreme operates about 140 stores in 27
        states (about 80 are franchised). In addition to its own
        brand of coffee, the company makes honey buns, doughnut
        holes, fruit pies, Danish, and dunking sticks. Krispy
        Kreme products are also sold wholesale to grocery and
        convenience stores. Founded in 1937 and gaining cult status,
        the company began expanding nationwide in the 1990s.
        The McAleer family owns 25% of Krispy Kreme, which
        went public in 2000.

      • GOTO.com had a similar restricted float and a
        similar runup, only to settle 75% lower after the hype
        was done. It did take until the lockup expired on
        12/15/99 before the stock finished crashing, but a big
        part of the fall was in the weeks before the lockup
        expired. And just check Yahoo's insider trades for GOTO on
        12/15/99. Sell, sell, SELL!!!

 
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