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Krispy Kreme Doughnuts, Inc. Message Board

  • beepdebob beepdebob May 9, 2000 12:06 AM Flag

    Once is Enough

    Most sane people will only wait in line for 45
    minutes to an hour once. After they fiqure out its just a
    fucking donut they'll be headed to Winchells or Duncan
    Donuts and be at work instead of waiting in a line. The
    stock has been getting some support at 40 but will
    ultimately head down into the teens once the lock up ends.
    Analysts gave 12 month price targets of 45 and 50 last
    week. Tried to short this thing many times today,
    however shares for shorting are becoming scarce.
    Everybody knows this stock is a joke. Will be placing more
    shorts tommorrow.

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    • I bailed a hair below 56. I might get back in on
      a dip. Good money for one weeks
      Another Peter Lynch Stock might be WWFE. Have some and
      buying more on the dips. A solid company with EARNINGS
      and great ideas.
      Extreme football and NBC might be
      a winning combo.

    • congrats longs, take profits while you can. the nitro that's fueling this rocket will eventually run out.

    • Yeah
      I have to remind myself that it's not the DD or the trading that makes you money, it's the waiting......

    • It doesn't matter whether you or I like her. She
      has 10's of millions of fans that heard her.
      after reading about Lynch's coup on PEP BOY, I didn't
      know what they did because they were not located in
      the South East.
      Yes KK is over valued but what
      isn't. Trying to explain KK to folks outside of the SE
      is like trying to explain Star Bucks to people out
      of the NW several years ago.

    • I was cought in the trap of seeing KREM's P/E of 3.48 and a book value/share at over $100. When I realized the mistake I was upset...until I realized I had made $10 a share on the stock.

    • P/E moves beyond QCOM P/E------------this is
      really too much.

      Short squeeze of massive
      proportion--once shorts are out because of buyins etc. etc.--it
      will do a belly flop on its donut-load head.

    • for us SHORTS

    • I agree with much of what you said. It is
      probably impossible to determine just HOW OVERVALUED KREM
      could become. So what I'm doing is averaging up my
      short. I started small at $47 and did another today at
      the close. Only thing I know for sure is that this
      POS will be much lower in the Fall. Again, I can't
      predict whether it will be $12 or $5, but it doesn't
      matter. It is probably the most compelling short I have
      ever seen. I'll be happy with a 70% profit in 5-6

    • What is the difference if the PE is in the 80's
      or the 100's; in my book once you are at either
      level the stock is being priced by some other method.
      Unfortuntely for me (being short) this stock is obviously
      being priced and traded on momentum alone. I am truly
      worried that we could see 70 or better before we see the
      teens. I keep telling myself I will have the guts to
      make the margin call when it comes and hang on until
      October. Hopefully I will follow my investment decision
      rather than my desire to cut my losses when the time
      comes. I recently wimped out and covered a short on Red
      Hat when it held up better than I expected right
      after the lock up expired. I covered in the high 90's
      at a slight profit; that stock closed at 20 today.
      Earlier today, I got excited and increased my short
      position in KREM at 47; I thought the dam had finally
      burst; it did not but it will. I still think shorting
      KREM is one of the best investment opportunities I
      have seen in a while, I just wish I waited a little
      longer to do it.

    • The current P/E is based on the S-1, which does
      not include the IPO shares. Based on the issuance of
      new stock, the true pro forma EPS is $0.48, for a P/E
      of 108 at the current price of $51 3/4.

      with a 20% increase in earnings (what I believe they
      are giving to analysts), the P/E would drop to 90 if
      they meet their projections. So that means KREM is
      trading at 90 times forward earnings, high enough to even
      choke a tech stock follower.

      I stand by my
      earlier forecast, KREM under $20 by October 15 (based on
      the expiration of the lockup).

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