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Krispy Kreme Doughnuts, Inc. Message Board

  • skithemoguls skithemoguls Mar 21, 2001 9:06 AM Flag

    KREM stock price a joke

    Only a fool would be buying KREM stock on the basis of fundamentals. Is there anyone on this board who owns it for fundamental reasons??? I can see one buying this stock, because of the games played by momentum players, market makers, company insiders and wall street analysts. If one is buying for concept reasons they don't understand valuation. Are there any long fundamental holders who want to defend what they think is an "investment"?

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    • On that subject,

      The Wade Cook company went after some posters that said unfavorable things about the company and Mr. Cook. I don't know what the outcome was, but there is no more yahoo message board to post on and the stock is at $.12/share from highs near $4.00

    • That is exactly why I posted that warning to marcrichsux. His post had no semblance of being factually based and he stopped just short of calling KREM management a bunch of crooks.

    • I was just reading about a lawsuit from a company against a poster on ragingbull. The statements they are suing him for seem like nothing but it is a wake up call that posters should make sure to stick to facts. Goodluck all.

    • You're right. I'm trying to quit doing that, but it's very frustrating to see posts from people that have done zero research stating that this stock is a sure thing because the lines are long and the donuts taste great. There are tons of them on this board. Then when you compound this frustration with that gleaned from being personally attacked by the longs on this board over a period of several months, I started to resort to their tactics. These people never had the knowledge or the guts to argue the validity of the points I make in my posts, they simply resorted to personal attacks. I don't exactly enjoy being personally attacked by someone that is not smart enough to even make a valid argument. Like I said, I'm trying to quit this practice.

    • nice trade, hope you were able to load up. I figure that DCA of 80 short should be quite sufficient to weather any squeeze that might occur. Seems that right now the media is pounding on krem, the masses will follow sooner or later.

    • rwcca look at the early morning spike. It showed 2 big blocks then and took them away. I follow very closely many stocks that I trade or will be looking to take a position. last week i owned may puts from 6 to over 11 and then sold.

    • pulled? seems that 1800 went from between 35 1/2 and 11/16. What a great trade considering the low is 36 1/16 for the day. HeHe. BTW why do you follow so close if you don't have a position.

    • I agree with your stance on this subject. That is why I've been shooting down the B.S. statements made by both longs and shorts.

    • Obviously you have never been to a Krispy Kreme before. If you had your valuation would be different. After my trip I immidiately checked on franchise opportunities and found out that all rights were fully secure for the US and Canada. Therefore the growth is going to be crazy. Also, this is a better reocurring revenue stream that Intel. I believe the valuation is a bit low. This is also a defensive stock. In a down ecomony people will continue to eat donuts. They introduced the first one in my state 8 months ago and the craze has not slowed.

      • 5 Replies to markhcook
      • mark,
        I have been to a KK outlet often in the past year or so of one opening in my city. Initially, the line was huge based on it's newness and media coverage. Those that have satisfied their curiousity, no longer wait in those now non-existent huge lines. Another outlet opened. Revenue steam based on that first store's kick-off business will NOT reoccur to the expansion of more outlets nor will the curiousity/newness factor have any legs, long term. As to valuation, I suggest you familiarize yourself more completely with the phrase, valuation to it's peers, which BTW, would exclude INTC!

        <They introduced the first one in my state 8 months ago and the craze has not slowed.>

        That statement above of yours...
        1. You're keeping tabs on the state? Why do I find that difficult to believe?
        2. An 8-month "craze"...exactly my overall point. The craze will diminish.

      • Mark your crazy! I look for you to lose a lot of $ on this boy. The PE is way too high regardless of whether they are expanding or not. The fundamentals are not there my man! Lived in NC all my life and been eating this stuff since the 60's. Your trip to local store must have given you a sugar overdose! In a down economy Mark, people stay home and do not go out to eat as much so they do not spend $. Donuts are not frigging defensive!

      • Last week on CNBC, they had a discussion in the morning in which they talked about how over the past decade analysts had been telling people to find a company that 1) makes a product that they understand, 2) has a good reputation and 3) seems to have potential for growth. They were stating how this influence has resulted in the "dumbing down" of the American public in terms of investing knowledge, because this brilliant advice never instructed the average American to learn how to analyze the valuation of a company's stock. This post is a classic example of this phenomenon.

      • This is exactly the type of saavy investor that is buying KREM for the long term at the current price. People that don't know how to research a stock, but they go into a Krispy Kreme store and are impressed by the long lines and the "donut making theatre". Then they realize that there aren't any Krispy Kreme stores in most cities nationwide and they say, "What a great investment!"

        I've been to numerous Krispy Kreme stores, including the original one in Winston-Salem, North Carolina. Growth in the number of stores is not going to "be crazy", it's actually going to slow over the next five years. If you had read the company's registration statement, you would already know that. In addition, same store sales growth is decreasing.

        You also seem to be possibly confusing the effect of franchise store revenue on the revenue of Krispy Kreme. Krispy Kreme receives an initial franchise fee and revenue for the donut making machinery when a new franchise store opens. After that, Krispy Kreme receives only a nominal revenue amount for donut ingredients and a small percentage of the store revenues.

        Your state got its first Krispy Kreme eight whole months ago and the craze hasn't slowed? Wow, that earth shattering! Wait until that same store is two years old and other Krispy Kreme stores have opened in the city, and you'll notice that the lines will drop dramatically (as do the store revenues).

      • Mark, how many times a week do you buy something at KREM? As far as "the growth is going to be crazy", are you saying you think the company is lowballing its growth estimate of 25%??

    • <Are there any long fundamental holders who want to defend what they think is an "investment"?>

      That question has one of the most obvious answers...NO. However...

      Using any sound basis for investing, one cannot ignore relative valuation within KREM's sector. Therefore, getting past the hype, the only sensible "investment" here would be to go short.

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