This board has been a real hoot for several weeks now. It's been a steady stream of name calling between "longs" and "shorts", touting the strength of their position. Then there are the statements about the "MM's manipulating the market" which seem to go in lock step with the poster's position. Oh, let's not forget the "Analyst's Opinion" or the "We Reiterate our <whatever> recommendation" statements ( We had to reiterate because our last recommendation didn't "move" the market like we wanted it too and a reiterate might just get the response we need). No facts, mind you, just statements, or opinions, or whatever. And then there's this terrible expiration of the "lockouts" which were supposed to make the sky fall or something, who knows...
You know what's lacking here ( in 19,700+ entries...)? Real, hard facts. That would be things like profit margins, gross margins, debt ratios, inventory growth relative to sales. You know, the real fundamental anaysis that supports realistic investing. Not this "leveraged, buying on margin so I can make a fast buck approach, or momentum buying, or whatever" stuff.
Otherwise everything else is just an opinion, and you know what they say about opinions... " Opinions are like A**Holes, everyone's got one..."
The point is:
1) If you think the MM's are manipulating the market, say who they are and why you think they are able to do so...
2) If you are an Analyst and have a recommendation, support your position with some facts - WHY is the stock worthy of a HOLD than a BUY ? Why is your price target $X instead of $y ?
3) If you are a rocket scientist and have a <Shorts>, <Longs>, <Puts>, <Calls>, or <Whatever> position, please provide some hard facts to support why that is the right position. Not opinions - FACTS.
Otherwise your ramblings will just be FARTS in the wind and will be hard to hear over all the other FARTS that are flying by...
And that's a FACT... Otherwise this continues to be great entertainment.
a recent article in bloomberg stated how krem was "priced to perfection". i remember when yahoo, cisco, rmbs, etc, etc, etc. were all priced to perfection a year ago. best of luck, in the long run you will need it
You stated, "Current profitability, liquidity, low debt load, recession proof product, and growth potential during a vicous bear market, are the factors driving KREM's share price."
Current profitability is not necessarily an accurate indicator of future profitability for any company, but particularly for Krispy Kreme. Why? Because KREM management is mortgaging the future of this company by opening new stores through franchise agreements rather than making them company-owned stores. Company-owned stores generate far greater revenue for Krispy Kreme than do franchise stores. Krispy Kreme management has decided to strike while the iron is hot and capitalize on the current hype by opening these stores as franchises. It allows the company to increase its store base while not loading down the company with debt. However, it also takes the premium store locations in the country and reduces the revenue and income from operations generated by those locations.
Krispy Kreme has a low debt load? Yes, they have a low debt load for the reasons that I have outlined above.
Recession-proof product? Donuts are not a recession proof product. The same stupid argument was made for Starbucks, and now they are warning that same-store sales growth rates will be in the low single digits.
Growth Potential - Unless you want to pay now for growth in the number of stores from six to ten years from now, this argument is fruitless for you. I've already laid out the facts regarding the growth in the number of Krispy Kreme stores over the next five years. It isn't impressive.
>>> I'm waiting for you to list the posts in which I was so wrong. <<<
You've made valuation assumptions for KREM based on outdated models, and ignoring the realities of today's market climate.
Current profitability, liquidity, low debt load, recession proof product, and growth potential during a vicous bear market, are the factors driving KREM's share price.
Regarding your original post about there being too much posturing and not enough facts, I and several others on this board have posted a slew of facts on this board on many different occasions over the last five months in an attempt to get the KREM longs to debate the future of this stock on the basis of cold, hard facts rather than their personal desire to purchase a dozen donuts. Without fail, the KREM longs skip over these posts or simply ignore them because they have no rationale to support an argument that this stock is properly valued at its current price.
>>>Without fail, the KREM longs (blah blah blah)<<<
"Without fail" the shorts on this board have been wrong at every turn in their prognostication about what will drive KREM share price.
"Without fail" they have lost their asses while missing thousands of juicy REAL short opportunities in unprofitable and liquidity challenged companies out there who will never sustain growth or make a profit.
"Without fail" these moronic, amateurish, idiot shorts are totally unaware of what the IMPORTANT "facts" are in determining what will drive share prices in the current market climate.
"Without fail" these amateur wanna be short sellers will continue to get pounded into oblivion because they were far too simplistic minded in their superficial "valuation" analysis, to understand what drives KREM. This is why they cry like whining stuck pig baby know nothing market ignorant fools that they are.
You shorts have lost YOUR ASS for months on end as this stock has risen ever higher, while REAL short opportunities in the THOUSANDS eluded you elsewhere in the market.
The crescendo, defining moment, climactic, deperately hoped for April collapse in the share price from insider lock up selling, NEVRE OCURRED, and NEVER WILL>
Only an ignorant, naive, amateur, retail short seller, would think that this "black and white", "Sure thing" would lead to their enrichment and somehow get missed by the REAL market players out there.
You are a dimwit who is losing all your money on a bad play.
And you are indeed a crybaby.
>>>Regarding your original post about there being too much posturing and... (blah blah blah... I and several others (blah blah blah...). Without fail, the KREM longs skip over (blah blah blah..... ad nauseum.<<<
Here's a "cold hard fact" for you. You have been wrong about everything to date, and have had your ass handed to you. This will continue.
Well, I consider myself duly chastised for not going back through the 19,000 + messages on this board to extract these facts. I guess I was overwhelmed by the ongoing MM's manipluation of stock price and the Put strategies being discussed.
Shame on me... `8^(
How about a simple over valuation based on the market model as defined by wall st. SBUX?
Further try this...Regardless of what wall st says here's a couple of scary facts re the market in general..Redemptions in mutual funds were during the month of March -20.6Billion, inflow was only 2.56Billion. Compare this with one year ago when inflows were 141.1Billion! That's a drop of 98%. Does that show you that the public has a lot of confidence in what's happening on wall st.??
I will restate what I have said in the past....companies that claim "no visibility" mean they don't know where the heck the new business is coming from. It is in wall st.s best interest to say that things are looking better because of the fed. But, historically, the fed cuts have never helped short term (less than 9 months). Further, one of the biggest single impacts on inflation and on the economy is fuel. You better believe that you will see $3.00 gasoline prices this summer, probably higher. The refineries are currently operating at 98% capacity. Normally, they operate at 80%.....and the really busy season hasn't started. This coming fuel crunch will be one of the straws that breaks the camels back. Most people can't really afford to invest, when you take away a couple of hundred extra dollars of their income to fuel...plus how higher prices affect everything else you have big inflationary pressures. They'll sell whatever they own just to live. We will see tomorrow unemployment levels that will be very near or at recessionary levels. The worst since 1992. This economy is in trouble and it "ain't going to get better fast. Bet on it! By Sept I would be very surprised if the Dow were not very close to 5000, and the Nasdaq close to 900. Wall st has a vested interest in keeping you interested and believeing everything will be fine in the long run. Put you money in. Unfortunately, they'll take it and sell this market off in the next couple of months. Then, finally, near the end of the year you'll hear them say, "Yeah, we were early in our advise, but the bottom is definitely here. Then by June of 02, the companies on the exchange will start CREEPING forward with improved business prospects. Meantime, don't believe all those penguins on wall st...they want your money. BE CAREFUL!
Now, that I've given you my reasons with some data to back it up, and subsequent rationale.....Can you?
You are right about that and more. Lower interest rates only work if people feel secure enough to borrow. Krem sould have one more run up and then tarheel will be right about the future. We are all in for some tuff sleding for quite a while. This is where being older pays off, if you want to call it that. You have seen more than the greatest economic expansion.
If it gets as bad as your numbers imply, nothing will stop it. Could the largest expansion be followed by a large contraction?
Excellent post about the wall street bulls and their constant desire to mask reality. Krispy Kreme is living in a bubble and it will burst. Instead of buying a doughnut people may have to buy gas. When KREM shows negative comps this stock will really be in trouble. Given the economic backdrop this could happen anytime shortly.
What else can you expect? Everyone on this board is just poking and hoping. When you are absolutly sure of a stock's direction, for whatever reason real or imagimed, is when you get burned.
I am a rocket scientist and the facts are as follows:
1. I stack krispy cremes donuts on my unit (up to six)
2. it's got a silly valuation.. end of story there.
3. Take your profits while you can. Then you can afford to stick something else on your unit.
4. My local bakery has better donuts. Cheaper too.
5. M$Ms, insiders, and institutions are going to take your cash.