believe it or not...read my posts..and heed my advice... this is a trading vehicle...write this down..by in the mid 36's and sell above 38..as per my previous posts... I know you will take that quite literally, that is why you are a "holder" ... my suggestion is that you try having aeronautical intercourse with a rotating piece of perforated pastry,, Krispy Kreme of course...lol
Both posts well taken.
I guess you are using some type of technicals/short interest/sentiment notion to guess when the stock will reverse. To me this is pure voodoo, but I wish you well with it and of course will be curious to hear when you think this "short term upside potential" has satisfactorily diminished.
Yes, puts are expensive. You could also sell calls (i forget the best way to simulate the stock with such combos), but many accounts do not allow that.
And really, have people been getting their kkd called back??? (Not for margin, but b/c the lender wants it?)???
Obviously I can't time it, but I am waiting for signs that *may* indicate that the buying frenzy is over. Actually, with lower volume that might be an indication. But, I've been talking about going short for quite some time now (several months) and because I don't believe the run-up is over I've kept my money other places. For me, this has been a wise decision. If I did short today and wasn't forced to cover, even though I would make money later (assuming it dropped, of course) the net gain won't be as good as it may initially seem when you factor in the loss on gains that I could've made by investing elsewhere. Don't know if I explained that clearly enough... I'm just saying that I believe that this stock will go down and I hope I can find the right time to go short. Until then, I'll keep my money invested in other places so that I don't tie it up. Obviously, I might miss the right opportunity, but that's the chance we all take.
I'm sure there are probably thousands of former KKD shorts that would disagree with your statement that getting your short shares called back is very rare. A very large percentage of the float on this stock has been shorted. Therefore, it has always been susceptible to short squeezes. That susceptibility appears to be diminishing, but it is still a very valid concern.
that's definitely logical.
but i just find it a strange position for one who purports to be a "long-term valuation" guy. why are you so uptight about timing? getting your short shares called back is very rare, and some options combo could probably simulate the stock movement pretty well as a substitute, if that happened. so you'd just leave some extra room in your portfolio in case the stock went up some more.
if a GREAT stock was undervalued and idiots were trashing it (and hurting its price), you'd be jumping on even if you thought it might go down more, BECAUSE YOU'D KNOW YOU CAN'T TIME THE TURNAROUND AND WOULD WANT TO MAKE SURE YOU WERE IN PLACE WHEN YOUR PREDICTION CAME TO FRUITION. most value investors think like that.
why not you? or do you think it might be going up a particular amount, and you're waiting until then? or maybe you don't think it's OVERvalued but rather fully valued? surely you're not trying to time this?
I don't have any positions on margin. I only invest with my own money that I am willing to lose. But, despite your account, you can be forced to cover on a short position outside of your control. I do believe there is a very good chance that this stock could continue to go up because of the "greater fool" principle. And yes, I could chance it to make few quick bucks. As tempting as it does seem, I (my own preference) refuse to invest that way. But, to each his own. I have been considering options and will likely go that route.
I agree that I don't know which way this thing will go with 100% certainty. I believe that no stocks are immune from valuation long term. Based on the company's statements of near term growth I don't believe that the P/E can be sustained. Yes, it is quite possible that the stock growth could be maintained for a few more years, but I don't believe that to be the case. Obviously just my $.01 (was 2 cents, but then there was this split....). Later.
If the short ratio is driving the price up (and I assume you mean it will continue to do so), then you should buy. If you think it's likely to go down, even in the long-term, you should sell. If you think that you know that it will go UP AND THEN DOWN, then you are really on crack and I don't believe that you really think you are this prescient. But I guess if this is the case you should make some type of options play.
Why would your broker force you to cover unless you were incredibly margined out? Put 20% of your portfolio in this "dog". Are you so short of cash that you couldn't cover a temporary upswing.
Enough of the yelling, my only point is that YOU don't know which way the stock is going to move any more than the longs. You only think that you have a better explanation of where the stock SHOULD be trading, and my point is that such analysis (the same kind made by brokers) is impossible to construct in our non-perfect market.
It's entirely possible, for example, that KKD could retain this "irrational" multiple for 3 years, at which point it may have grown somewhat into its P/E.
Form 144 Filer Last 3 Mo. Last
Total Number of Filings: 87
Total Proposed Sales (Shares): 2,272,047
As soon as insiders have dumped, the price will plunge. Too many jerk-offs here who obviously know little if anything, and focus only on the stock's price, (i.e. isn't this a cheap stock now after two splits?). The market is smart, and Krispy Krud will implode like every other over-hyped, fad stock in the past. It's not different this time and history will repeat itself. It's only a matter of time, and I'm willing to bet (yes I admit I'm betting) that K-Krud has minimal upside potential in the near term.
Why do you people insist on behaving as if you know which way the stock will move. Can you REALLY pretend like you have any insight here??? I personally think it's overvalued, but I won't act as though I know what's going to happen, or that the other side is wrong.
After all, why aren't you all just FILTHY RICH from shorting all the stocks that the "idiots" buy. You should be able to make a living at this if it's so obvious, right??? Just go from message board to message board and bet against the idiots.
Just because shorts are stupid doesn't mean they're wrong, any more than idiots betting vegas lines at football for bad reasons are likely to be wrong.
And what the hell is the difference between a buy and a hold recommendation??? Why would you hold it if you wouldn't buy it??? To save the $20 commission?