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Barnes & Noble, Inc. Message Board

  • financebill financebill Sep 1, 2010 10:04 AM Flag

    Big Trading Day

    The market at a whole is moving hugely up this morning with BKS right along with it. There's supposed to be a pretty bad report on Friday. I wonder if it's not a good idea to sell today while everyone's excited and rebuy after bouncing back toward the $15 range.

    Thoughts?

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    • Tomorrow may be good for BKS in particular. I give it a 50/50 chance. FrdY will be bad, but I don't think we'll end below $15 / share.

      There was a 0.10 put/call ratio today. You do the math.

    • why do you think there will be profit this quarter? Did you not listen to their latest conference call???? They have already predicted a loss for the quarter thanks to the proxy battle and the stupid NOOK.

      I would have sold out today as this will be going down with the rest of the market as the week rolls on and the news keeps getting worse. Lost in today's big gain was the aweful ADP news this morning. They were predicting a 17k gain in jobs but we actually lost 10k jobs. I also saw a article this afternoon stating that un-employment is up in over half of U.S. cities. Point is, I think this will be an aweful rest of the week both for BKS and the market.

    • Here's the swing I was referring to. For the average trader it's not enough to do anything about and will likely bounce back but a 26 cent up day is still a great day.

    • The government's official nonfarm payrolls report, which is due Friday.

      I've decided against it myself. Do I think it will drop before the end of the week from where it is? Yes. How much? Dunno. The reason I've decided not to make a move is tomorrow. Tomorrow is a big question in my mind. BKS is riding the wave today. If we predict that tomorrow it will ride the wave too, we have to be able to predict the wave. Historically I'm par for the course on predicting the wave. I'm MUCH better at predicting the movement of a single stock. Therefore; I'm sitting on this movement. I don't deal in 50/50s. I'll take my hit tomorrow if it comes. I have an incling that we may not see the pull back tomorrow but on Friday rather. I'd see where it is by 3ish tomorrow after noon.

    • At any rate I'm pretty excited about the prospects for the next few days running into the dividend. It should help raise the trading range a little.

      I think there will be the obvious price action here going ahead, but with the prospects related to the shareholders meeting, a possible profit this quarter, and a definite big profit for Q3 I think this has a plenty of wind in it's sails for a while.

    • You almost have me convinced to try and flip this, I mean 1 dollar stock difference you got on Q1 earnings, way envious. Do I risk it now, when its trading at the high of the day at 15.80, will it still be down in this range throughout the week? And what is this bad news of on Friday? I follow BKS as close as possible, but I have no idea what you could be referring to.

    • Yep. Like I said, I almost never do it and when I do it's in 2 chunks, at the same time. I'm a holder at hart unless there's a big market move that makes it profitable to not be (like the Q1 earnings).

      For his origional question, it's about "intent". You can't "Churn" a stock. But (as far as the law is conserned) if your intent is not to manipulate the market you're okay.

    • Not that you'd have to have bought them all in one chunk, but if you had a sell order at market price for 50k shares it would push the market noticeably.

    • 50k shares would be almost 5% of the typical volume for a day. That's a pretty large number.

    • But what if they announce a buyout while you're on the side lines?

      I hold a core position and trade around it. That way I won't miss out on a big gain that can come out of the blue.

      • 1 Reply to bearwatcher098
      • I make my money playing all or nothing. I really don't think we're going to see a buyout offer come in before the dividend date.

        I think of it this way; if I'm a potential buyer I want to buy this thing for as little as possible. That point is likely going to come either on September 10th or October 1st. Those two days are going to be bad for BKS b/c of the dividend. I'm going to seperate this next line so I can reference it later.

        -----
        - A very large number of people are going to flock to BKS on September 7-9th for the 25 cent dividend, which means BKS highest point should be on these dates.

        - A very large number of people are going to leave BKS on September 10th after the record of the dividend.

        - The stock value will drop a bunch after the dividend is paid out on the 30th. 25 cents times 55.79M = $13,947,500 paid out. That's a lot of money to lose.

        - On the 30th we will see who wins the proxy battle.

        -----

        There are some really important dates coming up and a big potential for gain if played right. One thing is for certain though. If you have any large number of shares (like I do) you're going to want to own this stock on the 9th and the 30th. All days that are not those are a guessing game.

 
BKS
26.23-0.11(-0.42%)Jul 30 4:02 PMEDT