hich does not
provide a cash flow. The IPO pop in valuation of BNBN is
a non-recurring gain, and is not going to create
longer-term earnings growth for BKS.
BKS will get
attention if the BNBN supply is so limited, some internet
chasin' fools decide they have to have BKS too, but it
won't hold for long. Remember when we hit the high 40's
on the same nonsense last year?
But let's face it, it's make nice time for the
shareholder. I was very impressed, and it left a good feeling,
a feeling of loyalty and a sense of belonging
It's come to the point where anything less leaves less
of an impression with the stockholders....
The annual report is a unique set up opens from
front and back to accentuate the two sides of BKS -
BN.com and BKS. The annual report is an absolutely
fantastic sales piece for BKS and BN.com, brillant timing
to have it received the week before the IPO. As with
all well done annual reports one feels strong about
their BKS investment and the future of BN.com after
The IPO drama is building and it looks
like the market may be positioned for stable to up
movement next week, but judging by the .com offerings this
week that is not necessary.
If you look at the posts on this board, though, a
great many have a very short-term mentality and will
bail after the ipo. I myself am long-term, but I
bought addition short-term shares. So, I'll sell a
portion, and hold a portion. How much I sell and hold
depends on the stock's performance next week. I value BKS
at $48. Therefore I will not sell my long-term
holdings for less than this.
based on excellent fundamentals and new moves to be
made by the B & N and allies in the future. Don't
expect to see a huge spike at which time you should
dump. BKS will constantly move up before and after IPO.
We'll probably see a rise to the 40-50 range
Tuesday, if all goes well. But, I imagine that we'll drop
back to the uppper 30s within a day or so of the IPO
as the short-term traders get out. I do think, if
the market is reasonably strong next week, and BNBN
continues to rise after the IPO, that BKS will rebound from
the initial selloff and break its previous high
within a week.
I've noticed that there have been several
positive references to the potential purchase of Ingram by
BKS. However, I've seen no detailed analysis of
exactly how this would affect BKS---both short and long
term. Would the purchase be accretive to earnings? It's
been noted that BKS would be in a position to profit
because AMZN would be buying books through Ingram (the
wholesaler). However, I also read a recent article where AMZN
justified their 50% discounting of NY Times bestseller list
because of improved margins. Part of this was attributed
to buying books directly from publishers rather than
through a wholesaler. Do we really know that the Ingram
purchase will be a big deal? Would appreciate any into any
of you can provide.
On another subject, I'd
like to theorize as to why there was a slug of recent
BKS insider sales. I noted that most of the options
exercised were in the $3.00+ area. These were very old
options and probably near the expiration period. Assuming
options were close to the expiration period (usually 9 or
10 years but can vary), the officials had no choice
other than to exercise upon a nice run-up of the stock.
It would be logical to sell the shares upon
exercise---otherwise the optionholders would end up paying a
good-sized tax burden out-of-pocket. Besides, these
officials undoubtedly are holding plenty of additional
options that were granted to them on an annual basis.
Without any real details as to motives, I wouldn't be too
concerned about recent insider sales.
If you're in for the short term (less than two
weeks) look to sell at 38, if it break through 38
without a pause and gets above 40, hold it. In another
month it could see its 52 week high.
If it hits or
trims 45 by September, it will bust through 50 by
October (based on Ingram news) and sail on (hopefully) to
the strongest retail fourth quarter in
May see 60 - 65 if that happens.
Of course, I'm in
at 30 and change and will sell next week if we see
"cyberhysteria" over the BNBN
Good luck to all longs,
goodbye to all shorts!