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Chembio Diagnostics, Inc. Message Board

  • rcdt999 rcdt999 Dec 25, 2012 12:59 PM Flag

    Look at Savient Phama. stk and compare to CEMI

    In 2011, Savient was given FDA approval for this new gout drug, billed as superior to all other gout drugs on the market. The share were over $23 on all the good news. Now it's at $1, because it failed to partner, and failed to manufacturer/market successfully it's new,great drug.

    Now look at GMED, which recently had news on new spinal products. The shares are now 1/2 what they were when the positive news came out.

    That's why, I want to know if CEMI can partner/manufacturer/market successfully, before I jump in with two feet.

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    • Maybe you read the penny stock pushers pumps. Savient's drug is used for a small slice of the gout treatment market, one that there are also alternative treatments for. You are correct, it is impossible for a small pharma to penetrate the market without a partnership with someone that has a mature marketing base. Most providers and payers have a lengthy approval process for therapies (FDA approval is just a license to start the sales process). Providers are reluctant to change therapies. Therefore, if it has only a marginal advantage and for a small population it won't get penetration into the market.

      They only got CMS to issue a billing code in January 2012 (needed for Medicare).

      That's 7 minutes of research. CEMI has a positive cash flow and strong balance sheet (o comparrison to savient). As to partnerships: I believe CEMI broke up with Alere because Chembio can sell direct to government institutions, the biggest share of the market, and doesn't need Alere. Considering Chembio's partnership with the CDC in the development of tests I'd say they have a very strategic relationship.

      As to the back treatment company: I'd never consder that because the only way it would pay off is if someone bought them. They have an almost impossible task of getting penetration into the provider market.

      Snippets to read:

      March 2011
      According to NICE (National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence) guidelines, even though Uloric is more effective than allopurinol it has not been shown to be more cost effective than the titrating doses of allopurinol. Another treatment option, Krystexxa (pegloticase), which was recently approved by the FDA for the treatment of refractory chronic gout, will serve only a specific patient pool that experiences treatment failure with the standard treatment options, such as allopurinol and febuxostat.

    • My observation is that it is not valid or useful to compare the failures of some companies is vastly different markets and products with a fledgling like Cemi........further, it is easy to find failures in the phama industry.........the best comparison will be with Orasure........and Cemi's products are widely viewed as much more user friendly and are highly course..........there are no guarantees in any company at this stage.....but, there can be no question about the need, and, therefore, a huge market, for the HIV DPP product.........I am in with a substantial bet and recognize that there are many bad things that can happen.....and only one good thing............with FDA approval...the door is open and now we shall see!!!!!

      • 1 Reply to mjh194353
      • rcd....I don't need to look any further than the last 10-Q from SVNT to see the problem.
        #1 they are carrying $225 million in debt...
        #2 they are losing $25 million/ quarter while generating only a little more than $5million in revenue

        It obviously was grossly over valued at $23 and was a serious lottery ticket looking for FDA approval.

        CEMI (as was previously mentioned) has already partnered with Alere to get it's product to market and is partnering with an unnamed company to develop it's HCV product.. All of this with a MUCH better financial position debt wise and earnings wise should be all you need to know to see the difference between these two companies.
        As for your other company, I was able to find this.
        Globus Medical (GMED) is a pure play on medical devices for the spine. It has a 14.5 multiple with a 14% growth rate, but faces 3 headwinds: 1) as a recent IPO, it faces lockup expiration 2) the spine segment has been in a decline 3) GMED has declining gross margins.
        CEMI doesn't have any of these problems either. Growth rate far exceeds their multiple for 1 thing.
        You don't have to buy CEMI, but please don't go off bashing the stock based on your other bad experiences when they don't translate. Ask for help on the DD if you need to, but don't bash. Apples and Oranges pal.

    • Thanks for the info. Here's a tip for you. Just listen to the past conference calls. Chembio's management is very savvey and conservative. If they believe it's the best route and will benefit shareholders the most...they will partner with someone. They have done it before to get to where they are today. We have mega-cap management running a nano-cap company. I I have for years that current management will pull the right strings to grow the company, their products and their market. I'd bet they are working on another partnership at this time.

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