According to the major homebuilder's annual reports, the average price of homes sold in 2004 is approx $250k, and over 50% of their homes sold for under $300k.
Is this really the case in the USA? If so, the house prices there are much much cheaper than in other parts of the world (eg. Australia, UK), and I find it hard to believe that there is a USA housing bubble
You guys seem to think that that California and Florida are the entire United States. I live in Texas,near San Antonio and I can guarantee you house prices are no where near the levels discussed on this board. Lennar is a new player in the San Antonio market. They start at prices below $150,000. These are everything included single family homes. My wife and I recently looked at a Lennar home with 2700 square feet of living space in a desirable part of San Antonio and this house listed for $208,000 and comes with a complete yard and all appliances. Lennar is also a player in the Austin market with similar priced homes. If you don't believe me--just go go to Lennar's web site and click on Texas' avaiable homes. I know I checked out California's. I can't believe how high the prices are for one unit of a four plex. If the entire nation was out of control like California I think there would be reason to worry but that's simply not the case. I believe there is a bubble in California but Lennar is doing the smart thing and is exapnading into new areas with reasonable prices--such as San Antonio. Looking at Lennar's balance sheet and PE% it seems reasonable to me that Lennar could withstand the relaxation of prices in California and Florida--it could be argued that it could even be healthy for the home builders-as lower prices should result in more people in the market. As far as comparing this housing bubble to the tech bubble ---there is one HUGE difference when comparing a stock like Lennar to a tech stock. Most of those tech stocks were trading at astronomical PE's and a lot of them had no PE's at all because they had no earnings. Lennar has a PE around 7. I see no comparison.I bought 100 shares of Lennar @ $55 in my IRA and am completely comfortable with the investement.
"I bought 100 shares of Lennar @ $55 in my IRA and am completely comfortable with the investement."
LEN could go to a $80, when I have no idea, LEN could go to $30, when I don't know, but IMHO it will see $30 before $80. Hold some back for your IRA, you'll get this cheaper.
you need to do a little math,
If thirty percent of your sales are generating most of your profit
$450,000. Cali pink box 70,000 profit
$200,000, Texas pink box 7,000 profit
and you sell half as many in the 70 k profit
and sell 3 times as many in the 7 k profit,,,,
The trends in sales are the same for all HBs good numbers in cheap areas, South and waining in expensive areas,,,,, check the sales charts in 10q for 6 qrtrs
and then you take away the volume
LEN WILL GO TO A 25 PE,,, on previous growth numbers for about a year until your margins delete your earnings, to a buck or less, in short order
OC is the rat race capitol of the free world, no one wants to live there, they have to for the jobs. Sitting on the freeway and seeing minimalls everywhere is no way to live. LA is nicer as at least it has history and culture.
OC is craplastic.
Ex-DP resident in the 70's when it was nice.
I know what's going on in Australia. I'm just saying that the USA "housing bubble" (if there is one) is nowhere near the state of the housing bubble in Australia, especially when you take into account the fact that ppl in USA get paid more than in Australia for the same job!