We deeply believe that Homebuilders have bottomed. Downside risk resides in the 10 to 15 percent. However from a risk/reward perspective. These stocks look very attractive.
Good luck to all investors
What seems isn't all what IS.Look back...what do you see in your rearview mirror?..You see GW and buddies doing everything they can NOT to let this market crash...and damn it...they are doing it..I'm not saying the economy is great,because I think the DOW should have shed 2k points long ago...but they are pulling the wool over our eyes folks.I was here in the ealy 80's and saw people who couldn't buy a job..myself included.I live IN the oil patch and work here.The last time(80's) we were the last shoe to drop...and it's starting right now...offshore supply vessels are tying up.Jobs are getting harder to find.Last year you couldn't find a licensed captain to run a vessel.Right now,my friends in the buisness tell me the phones are starting to ring with captains looking for jobs...Day rates are dropping fast. some of my smarter customers sold out after 45 years in the buisness...doesn't look good.....plus,we're going to need lots of Taco's to feed the illegals who came down here for jobs...
Worst is over. Any bad news is baked into the price. Any positive news will force accelerated short covering. Meanwhile we have noticed some insituttions started reducing their short exposure
It was so obvious. We believe we have bought the absolute low.
We have loaded at these levels and now momentum started to pick up. Expect short covering to come into play very soon as it is confirmed for the time being that this sector has bottomed after CFC CC.
Hey All you Longs, after being in the realestate Law Practice 30++ years, it takes appx 9 months, sometimes 12 months for the market value to reset the rates lenders will charge after a crunch like this one. You would be wise to not even think of buying yet. Just my humble opinion.
As of today, your call is correct but I think you have it reversed. I believe the bounce is worth about 10 to 15 percent and then it goes lower. A stock that has no earnings and then reports almost four times worse than expected does not belong at this level. The 10 to 15 percent bounce is emotion, in my opinion. I'm going to re-enter somewhere above 24 for a bearish position again.
This is exactly what should investors expect from a damaged sector. Crowded trade on the downside. Very bad sentiment. Any bad news is expected and already priced in. As we mentioned in the past, our models reflect 10% to 15% downside risk
Today is just basically noise. Expect that we will be range bounded for sometime
We still back our position at this point.
Good luck to all investors