How you can spot the bottom in housing: VERY SIMPLE! The cost of ownership has to be equal to or LESS THAN the cost of renting, based on a 30 year fixed rate mortgage to a borrower of average credit worthiness. Here in Las Vegas, even after a near 20% decline in home prices, the cost of ownership is still at LEAST 50% higher than renting. If you can pay $1,000 a month to RENT a house, why would anyone in their right mind pay $1,800 a month to buy it? Plus, renting has all sorts of other perks, such as being able to easily move if a dirtbike-riding, beer-swilling imbecile moves in next door.
LEN's recent rally is a deadcat bounce. If not for deadcats, shorting would be far too easy.... Guaranteed LEN will see single digits soon.
We, who have followed the homebuilders over the last few years know that we are no where near the bottom for sure. This story has been played over and over again. I would be surprised if any of homebuilders have a legitimate profit until 2010. Analysts have been wrong on housing for the last two years. Why should we believe them now?
That's true however we are dealing with Wall Street here not the boots on the street (Realtors). I believe the bottom is nowhere near but markets are always ahead of your actual Realtor by 3-6 months minimum and although these Homebuilders will take some short term hits, dont expect them to file BK so soon or to see them in single digits. We are now beyond those days at this point.
Fianancials are finally here. Well, I sold all my long shares today and Im going to wait to see what happens. With all the bad news and so called good news hell, this stock can be carried by just positive sentiment towards bank alone. Hell some believe BSC was worth only .50 cents but look at that thing. I must digest the nextfew days to see if this is a turning point of just another BS session. Without that its hard for me to take a call on LEN at this point although my technicals see some strong support near close today and worse case scenario at 15. Good luck all out there.
Buying a house should NEVER equal the cost of renting. Why would anyone rent when they could buy at the same price??? It makes no sense, when you have a house, your paying $200 to $400 a month in pricipal (automatic savings account if you stay anywhere for 5 years+), plus you get back about $2000 a year in tax savings, why would you rent when you could buy at the same price. Not to mention if you own a place, and you know someone that needs a temporary place, they cans stay with you and pay you some rent money. Mortgages should always be about 20% more than renting. People like to talk about rent prices matching home prices, but whenever that happens, there's a huge housing boom.