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Lennar Corporation Message Board

  • short4cash short4cash Mar 13, 2012 5:53 PM Flag

    Dump this pig, It's no bank!

    Frenzy buying. IT WILL DROP

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    • pepperoniandmushrooms2003 pepperoniandmushrooms2003 Mar 24, 2012 8:38 PM Flag

      I dont know, it sounds like the entire street was looking for KBH to kick some a$$, Ive read a few articles prior to earnings that said "for sure" KB was going to blow away estimates, it was a slam dunk deal. Its been a long time that ive seen everybody kinda dazed and confused over a single earnings report.

      How does that fare for LEN and others who havent shown their hand just yet?

      Is it all "for sure" like KBH ?

      I am very Impressed with the chart, talk about a solid up trend, BUT it looks alot like one of those "sell the news" situations, its priced beyond earnings and beyond perfection, is this really the report that justifies its value?

      I have a heavy bet that says no.

      I can easyly see this at $20 no problem, estimates were already revised downward, Imagine they report a loss ???

      Or miss by a few pennies ??

      anything less then a huge beat, will send this down hard.

      just my thoughts.

    • When people come out and say things like, "dump this pig" and "pos", that is the sign of someone short on the wrong side of a trade or too dumb to sell earlier because of greed.

      LEN will go higher from here. Shorts are screwed if they think it is going a lot lower. Some pullbacks are expected, overall, LEN will go past $30, 15% gain is a no brainer. LEN is more than a homebuilder.

      • 1 Reply to martylander1
      • Marty,

        I have zero idea what you mean that it's more than a homebuilder. Their business is building and selling homes. The "distressed real estate" angle is only viable if they can build and sell homes on that real estate. These are not distressed office buildings LEN owns. There’s no stream of cash flows from the assets they bought. They own piles of land. If they can’t convince home buyers to buy the homes they build on that land, the marks they take each quarter aren’t worth the paper they’re printed on.

        Ultimately you’re paying 10% less than average peak valuation for the stock right here. You need to reasonably expect that revenue is going to regain the 2005-1H2007 peak if the cash flow is going to match the current valuation. (That won’t even provide upside, it’s just preventing the thing from tanking.)

        Ultimately the stock is being driven by guys trying to express a macro view on the housing “recovery.” They, like you, don’t care about valuation. They all think they’ll be smart enough to be out of the way when the music stops. Some definitely will be, but others will get their faces ripped off. So enjoy the time in the sun. It’s not going to last. The stock is so far above fair value literally anything is possible, so in the short run $30, why not? But over a longer time horizon the thing is going back into the high single digits or low double digits where the cash flow can actually match the valuation.

 
LEN
39.53-0.99(-2.44%)Feb 5 4:02 PMEST