We expected today to be a light day, and so far it has been. But it is hard to miss tha major move in the gold pits today. $GLD spiked on health volume and thus breaking above the falling resistance trendline off support. Expect a gap fill to $12.53 at a minimum.
Gap fill may be considered complete, yet there has been no material pullback but a new buy signal triggered on the classic P&F chart (low pole reversal). Gold continues to be in a bullish uptrend, and MACD histo rolling over on the day and perhaps the weekly, so $SAND should get some buying volume to and beyond $12.51 to test the MA(50)d now at 13.10. From $12.51, that could be a quick added 4.7%.
Catalysts (outside the price of $GLD) include update on progress at Mina and new deals to be announced on the back of the fresh capital.
Update 12/12: After the aformentioned breakout, the $GLD dropped below that resistance line, and then proved to be a battle ground for several sessions. We asked a gold trader his opinion and he said their was some beleif that part of the rise if the physical was in prep for the end of the world. I laughed but then noted he was dead serious. His thesis is that the high demand for gold coins is driving a segment of those around the world thinking that maybe ...just maybe ...the Mayans are right. And so speculators bet along with them over the last few years, but now betting against, thinking that this element of the demand will dry up post Dec 21st.
We think this is hog wash...not just the Mayans EOW date, but that serious speculators were betting on a demand spike in gold are now reversing course.
Our bet is forget the Mayans. It is all about Central Banks, which will be speewing currency to prop up asset prices, but will force physical assets on an inflation swing.
We remain long several miner plays (copper $SCCO, HREE junior $UURAF, and for gold $SAND).