just blind guessing, Fact is: the market is NOT rational and this may continue for a lot longer than you're guess, STILL, I 'm with you on adding shares here on SAND--the downside is getting more and more limited unless all the miners are to go completely out of business
I believe we are in the same group.
i also believe that failure is built into this end game. it may come from money shifting long term positions, and or it may come from china/saudi arabi forcing the petro dollar issue. why you may even have other rational, but the worst case scenario on downside is a $4.00 temp move - yet, $11.00 upward move.