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FLY Leasing Limited Message Board

  • airlease2000 airlease2000 Mar 8, 2012 9:07 AM Flag

    Earnings great

    When was the last time a stock beat concensus by this much!! Let the good times roll.

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    • You've been involved with these companies for quite some time so I'm sure you know the business is cyclical. It's during these lean times where management really becomes important. For example, back in 08 when the lessors were hit hard, fly repurchased 169 million if discounted notes for 49 cents on the dollar, during
      Q4 2010 they resold some and booked a profit of 12.5 million. During Q1 2012 they sold the balance of them and will book 44 million in profit for the current quarter. Barrington is always turning over rocks looking for opportunities and refuses to make deals just for the sake of it. That way of thinking sets fly apart from the others. These are his words "Our strategy allows us to evaluate all relevant aspects of each acquisition transaction, that is the aircraft cost, the terms if we issued lease and the financing terms available. We do this before we make each investment decision." He further went on that because of the size of the fleet they would be persuing opportunistic sales and purchases. With 150 unrestricted cash on hand the company is again positioned to make another transformational purchase or/and juice up the dividend.

    • ", but what was said at the beginning of the conference call about rates burst the balloon" this seems exactly true and it hurt AER also - which is not a surprise as they have the most leverage in buying new planes going forward of any of them.

    • At the JP Morgan conference, Colm said the extra cash came from selling the last of the debt FLY bought for 49% of face value.

    • I also noticed on ILFC was talking of doing some further mark downs of their portfolio when I checked in on Ameritrade. I wondered if that played some part too. I think it will be interesting to see what happens to this sector if when they go public. That will make two major players and hopefully a little more attention.

      Looking ahead we know that we have another 3 qtrs ahead that are going to dwarf the previous years quarters. Unless the majority of the leases get renegotiated off contract I don't see how today can be worthy of much concern. If anything I think it suggests that we are headed for new highs. With the exception of the value of my account it was a majorly successful day!

    • Seems that the raw figures sent FLY sky high at the opening, but what was said at the beginning of the conference call about rates burst the balloon. After all, the name of the game is the next 3 months rather than the past 3. But even with diminished rates on a few returned planes, the next set of numbers (in just 2 months) should be quite respectable. I wish though that management had been more upbeat.

    • My guess is all that cash came from sale of some old airplanes as they hinted they wanted to do in their call.

    • No fear here, Strum. I took a hard look at these companies back in 08 and judged that FLY was the Best Of Breed. I follow the company closely, keeping both eyes open and thus far management has exceeded my expectations. This management is very opportunistic and remains focused on increasing shareholder value. If a deal doesn't meet their criteria, it doesn't happen.

    • Don't lose your conviction. They have done everything they said they would. The share price will take care of itself eventually.

    • The key point in your post is that we gained all of four pennies on a day where the overall market soared and we were up almost 20% in pre-market. To say that the day was a disappointment is an understatement.

      How in the world does a company beat estimates like this company did and see all of a four penny increase?

    • stinosmos- I think we will also, especially since they announced that they had 150 million in unrestricted cash on hand. When they released earnings they stated that they had 380.5 million in cash, 82.1 million unrestricted as of the end of the year. I was wondering how that turned into 150 million as stated during the conference call today. At first I thought they had mispoke, as did the analyst, but Barrington confirmed that figure. The transcript confirmed the 150 unrestricted cash also. That's six dollars a share making an increase an easy do if they so chose.

      Great earnings, solid projected revenue 194 going to 363 million per year, solid plan for growth and Mr Market gives us four pennies. We do indeed need an increase in the dividend.

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12.53+0.52(+4.33%)Oct 21 4:00 PMEDT

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