Let's posit a rationale describing a likely recovery path for PBR share price:
1.) The Dow may fall below 12000, but given the recent levels attained, the likelihood of it remaining below 12000 for an extended period must be considered extremely remote. So, to the extent that PBR's share price tracks this average -- and indeed it has historically followed the Dow's direction rather slavishly -- this contributor, at least, should soon stabilze.
2.) In 2008, the per-barrel price of crude oil is likely to fluctuate between US $75 and US $105, with the "sweet spot" for PBR being somewhere in the US $ 85- US $95 range. I say this because:
a.) the dow has reacted very badly to crude prices in excess of $95 per bbl., ( & we don't want to provoke the dow into dragging PBR down.)
b.) Petrobras doesn't receive full market price for that portion of its production consumed within Brazil anyway, so +95 gets you squat.
c.) Even a full-blown worldwide recession would not materially diminish global aggregate demand for oil and natural gas, though it would cause the more capital-intensive exploration, production, and any alternatives to said exploration and production, to become absolutely non-viable for lack of financing.
d.) The de-stabilization and marginalization of Iraq and Iran, as well as the ongoing decline in Venezuelan, Nigerian & North Sea production will negate most of the 2 million bpd the Saudis claim they've been holding back.
e.) Bush has announced a planned expansion of the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve. (That's ironic, considering ANWR represents a "natural" repository at no cost to the taxpayer -- I mean, why pump the crude out of ANWR if you're just gonna to pump it into an underground salt dome off the Gulf coast.? )
3.) Petrobras, at 2 million + bpd output is going to be a comparative "stand-out" as regards profitability throughout 2008.
4.) With financials & retailers practically begging to be shorted with impunity, only a self-destructive soul indeed would short a stock like PBR, which has 5 big 'ol saturn V rocket boosters strapped to it and all but shaking loose ice chunks?
5.) Only an idiot believes that a falling dollar will stimulate U.S. exports.
(actually, a fallen dollar -- ie a dollar which has ceased it's free fall -- would, but suppose you were a foreign air carrier, would you buy an $80,000,000.00 airliner from Boeing, if by postponing said purchase you could get it cheaper next month just by waiting for the dollar to fall some more? No, you'd wait... and that's precisely what our foreign trading partners whose currencies are appreciating relative to ours are doing.
We don't need further fed rate cuts, we need to stop the dollars free-fall.
We don't need Helicopter Ben or some butt-munch legislative stimulus package.
"Our greatest glory lies not in never failing, but in rising again every time we fail".
Um abraco geral pra galera : ) ... os meus dois centavos
Re: << 3.) Petrobras, at 2 million + bpd output is going to be a comparative "stand-out" as regards profitability
throughout 2008. >>
YEP! I believe many investors don't see this obvious fact...as we anxiously await news of *more* new finds.
Some even ignore effect of recent PBR Natural Gas finds, which could also support generation of electricity in Brazil:
Gas and condensate discovered in Peru (Petrobras)
The Kinteroni discovery structure is more than 22 kilometers long and has some 115 meters of liquid gas and condensate reservoirs. Although the available data do not allow the precise definition of the discovery's resources, the structure's dimensions allow volumes of some 2 TCF (56 billion cubic meters) to be expected.
IMHO, PBR will be one of the best long term investments of the next decade and probably way beyond. They have everything going for them. It will take a strong stomach to hang on for the bumpy ride, but it'll be well worth the effort. I can envision a double by the end of this decade unless the whole world crashes into a major depression. If Brasil keeps going the way they have been, we'll all have to learn to speak portuguese.