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Petr Message Board

  • musketeernumberone musketeernumberone Feb 9, 2009 12:03 PM Flag

    If you want to make money now...

    ...buy dry bulk shipping, fertilizer and chinese internet stocks -- they are all "on fire"... and you can thank me later.


    GLTA... Muskie

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    • Took a quick look at CWEI: Astounding ROE, good growth etc, but all this is old data predicated on high energy prices... with energy prices low, their business model suffers (unlike pipeline and storage companies who's fortunes vary with volume rather than price). No wonder they pay no divvy on the common.

      A 20% yield with a 12% coupon means the bonds have been severely and unduly punished... I'd need to look much deeper to feel good about the bonds for now. That said, any tightening at all of oil and gas prices should be very good for CWEI as it would be for every gas/oil E&P and ... I'm putting it on my watch list to join CHK, PXP, DVN, etc.
      Thanks for the tip.

    • Took a look at MIC financials on Yahoo. They are a year old. In any case, I was not impressed by the lack of profitability, growth, nor ROE and ROA. The 20% divvy looks great, but there are reasons for these things...

      The liquids storage subsidiary, IMTT, looks interesting. On the basis of your interest in this, I'd recommend you look at PAA, MMP, ETP and other NGLPs. These are publicly traded partnerships that transport, store and process NG, oil and other materials. Profits receive preferential tax treatment because these are quasi utilities: "Preferential" because the companies pay out 90% of profits which are NOT taxed at the corporate level, only at the partner level (like an REIT), thus no "double taxation". Plus a percentage of the payout is in the form of "return of capital" which is not taxed. "Quasi-utilities" because this is a "not in my back yard" business and nobody builds a pipeline where one already exists -- nice limits on competition.

      PAA is very interesting right now because they have the largest storage capacity at an oil storage facility in Cushing, OK which is filled up due to contango in oil market, i.e., their storage business is going gang-busters.

      These companies yield a safe 9-10% now and can appreciate like stocks when markets recover and like bonds if/when corporate interest rates decline.

    • Thanks, Doc. Will take a look at Clayton Williams stock and bonds.

    • Musk, I really like the way you are playing the energy space. I think others should follow suit. PBR may go up but it is way overpriced here and over time will fall.

      I found an interesting bond in the energy space. I guess JD has up and gone away. I didn't like his attacks on me, but he did bring up some good articles.

      Anyhoo, he often posted from the investor village CWEI board which is Clayton Williams Energy, and I found a bond of theirs today.

      CUSPID is 969490AC5. It yields around 12% and has a yield to maturity of 22%.

      I thought you and others here might like this one. GLTY my friend.

    • Thanks ACO, I'll take a boo. I'm concerned about the debt too but seems like a solid business otherwise. I like that but need to look more closely.

    • Here are three posts that some guy on the MIC board threw up during the past week. I am familiar with KOL - I haven't checked it out in several months. Probably worth a second look.

      You might be onto something with NG, but for some reason CHK won't budge. Hopefully, Obama will announce the long anticipated NG vehicles initiative soon.

      ACO

      1.

      what like CSCO and AMZN and just about half of the stocks out there that have it factored into ahead of earnings, then they attract the shorts and voila,,, up the hills we go

      the only reason the stock went down is b/c a fund had to force dump b/c of new restrictions certain institutions have < $5/share

      notice all the willing investors to buy at these levels, and anybody wanting to see why this stock is going to $9 just try and find any company with the likes of IMTT (a MiC asset) http://www.imtt.com/

      MIC owns 50% of http://www.imtt.com/

      a few of you would be wise to post that on a few active boards... i am too lazy to post and , fwiw, busy gathering at lows but wouldn't mind either way

      2.

      At March 31, 2007, IMTT’s total property, plant and equipment and total assets were $569.2 million and $657.3 million, respectively

      lets say $600m for IMMT / 44m shares = $13.60 alone

      call IMMT and ask if the current over supply of oil has made their phone ring off the hook, and the response should be interesting... any takers?

      3.

      From the 10Q below. The contracts IMTT must be getting for oil storage must be incredible. IMTT is one of the biggest in the country. Just read and note the scale of the operations. This asset alone is probably worth much more than the market cap. Most of consolidated debt is non-recourse and so I do not worry about airport parking or even the FBO debt. For certain, MIC has one portfolio company (IMTT) that is really strong.

      "Since completing our May 2006 investment in IMTT, the business has undertaken a total of $472.0 million in expansion projects and acquired the Joliet facility for $18.5 million. As shown in the following table, these growth initiatives are expected to add or refurbish approximately eight million barrels of capacity, which will contribute $64.2 million to gross profit and EBITDA on an annualized basis. It is anticipated that the capital expenditures will be funded using a combination of IMTT’s cash flow from operations and its debt facilities.
      The largest expansion project is the construction of a bulk liquid chemical storage and logistics facility on the Mississippi River at Geismar, LA. IMTT expects to spend approximately $207.7 million on this project. Based on the current project scope and subject to certain minimum volumes of chemical products being handled by the facility, existing customer contracts are anticipated to generate minimum terminal gross profit and EBITDA of approximately $18.8 million per year. The logistics facility began limited storage and terminalling operations in April 2008 and was substantially complete in September 2008. Along with the construction of this phase of the storage and logistics operations, IMTT spent an incremental $16.0 million to install an additional 432,000 barrels of storage capacity, which began operation during February 2008 and is expected to generate incremental annual gross profit and EBITDA of $2.8 million.
      IMTT recently initiated an expansion project at its St. Rose, LA facility that is expected to add up to 1.8 million barrels of new capacity and improve associated infrastructure. The initial $87.4 million phase of this project has been approved by the relevant regulatory agencies and is reflected in the growth capital expenditures total in the table below. IMTT anticipates the second phase of this project will require additional approvals to incur $17.2 million in capital expenditures and that completion of both phases will occur in the first quarter of 2010."

    • Cool... toay was interesting, especially the recovery. Nice to see some good news for a change.

      I think your focus on utility and quasi-utility stocks is interesting and that MIC was an interesting pick... airport services, parking lots, wter in Vegas and nat Gas in Hawaii... these are all oligopolistic businesses with (methinks) fairly solid pricing power even in a recession. The Brazilian utilities also seem soli but I don't see the ADRs moving without a general move in sentiment, i.e., individual stock prices captive to the market (BOVESPA).

      If you like PTEN check out HP, a horse I've ridden previously, but I'm out of NG for now... oversupply, low prices, impaired demand.

      To see why I like KOL and coal LPs (NRP up 5% today), check this out:

      http://www.forbes.com/2009/02/12/natural-resource-partners-markets-equity-0212_earnings_30.html?feed=rss_markets

      Best,
      Muskie

    • Win,

      Out of all the stocks I listed in the previous post, SDA is the scariest. MIC comes second. Reason - balance sheets. These stocks provide both the greatest risk and possible return. I posted something on SDA board regarding what their balance sheet should look like given available 4Q data.

      Not a pretty picture. Having said that, I picked up some today at $4.

      GL,
      ACO

    • OK Musk,

      Today was one scary day, but I filled out my position. Hopefully, I will be able to flip a few of these in the next day/week for a quick profit, because this market probably isnt done going down.

      Yesterday added:

      MIC (really strong) - This thing hasn't waivered in the last two days.
      TBSI (down - I jumped the gun by a day)
      VE (down somewhat less)
      ELP (down some)

      Around noon today:

      SDA
      PDA (up nicely)
      SBS
      PTEN (scary but a solid company - NG driller check it out.

      At around 3:30pm

      BCS
      BBT
      RIO

      Hopefully a fast trade on the banks.

      ACO

    • Hey Win: SDA is in the middle of a huge financial melt-down due to losses on currency derivatives... it's an excellent company (#2 domestic processed food company in Brazil, after Perdigao)that made some foolish bets and now has to climb out of a huge hole... It's imperative that you do more research... suggest you go to SDA board to find out more.

      GL,

      Musk

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PBR
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