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  • ilap2004 ilap2004 Apr 19, 2010 10:24 AM Flag

    Crack shack or Mansion? Canadian housing bubble


    Besides all that, I don't know what the Canadian dollar has to do with the Brazilian Real.

    "In the US, the housing bubble was ready to implode, no matter what happened to the economy.

    In fact, it was the leading reason for all the financial trouble and would have lead to a recession irregardless of what Wall Street was doing with derivatives etc."

    You mean derivatives could not cause people to default on their mortgages? Astounding!!!

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    • I think the real and $C have some similarities in that they are resource currencies but Canada might be more tied at the hip with the US so that would have a bearing on future currency adjustments between the two.

      With about 75% of Canadian exports going to the US, I think a much stronger $C would have a greater effect on it's US trade than that of Brazils so my guess is that Canadian policy would work harder than that of Brazil's to mitigate the damage.

      That said, I think the Brazilian CB has a bit more latitude to allow it's currency to rise against the USD (compared to Canada)so the Brazilian CB might be less likely to intervene in order to stop their currency from appreciating vis-a-vis the USD so that might have a bearing on Brazilian rates as well.

      Still, I think the $C could easily move to a 10% premium over the USD given another year or two and I still think the real goes to par with the USD within the next 10 years.

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