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Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobra Message Board

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  • ilap2004 ilap2004 May 11, 2010 10:22 PM Flag

    The Metals Breakout Continues


    Good article at the Motley Fool:

    Despite this acknowledgment of substantial potential margins of error, our country is staring down serious financial consequences should we not sustain 3.3% annual GDP growth between now and 2020. In fact, according to the sensitivity analysis included in the White House's own budget, we will add more than $3.1 trillion to the national debt should annual GDP growth through 2020 check in at 2.3% -- just one percentage point lower.

    How likely is this to happen? After all, 3.3% real annual GDP growth is roughly the historical U.S. average.

    According to a recent paper from the Bank of International Settlements, GDP growth falls one percentage point annually when a country's debt reaches more than 90% of GDP. The U.S. is currently at 87.3%. That number will be over 90% by the end of this year or next, making 2.3% GDP growth over the next decade much more likely than 3.3% GDP growth given that 3.3% was the average when the country was not weighed down by debt. This fact, if you're concerned about fiscal responsibility, should have you headed to the restroom. And it just goes to show how so many well-intentioned government plans are doomed by optimistic, unrealistic assumptions.

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