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Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras Message Board

  • arwen_imaginary arwen_imaginary Sep 30, 2010 1:56 PM Flag

    Notes on the" brazilian gov actions and opions"

    Hi everyone, i enjoy the discussions on this board so please do not take this badly. This is just MY opion.
    I have read way to many negative comments on the b. government's actions , outcomes and results on pbr and its stock price .. that it is an almost "comunist " gov, that it wants pbr to bleed it to death and feed the poor.. all to the people NADA to shareholders.. yeay poor guy who bought pbr 15 years ago, no buy and hold stategy here...
    O but yes the future gov will do evrything in its power to make pbr into a giant state runned $ machine,,
    I enjoy the facts and opinions i get on this board , but imo a lot of you have this wrong, and do not even see the concept of nacional pride involved in pbr. I'm french and travelled to brazil just on holiday but i know that much. To me , that is a fact.. GL.

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    • Arwen…I understand your perspective but I disagree for one simple reason. At the end of the day, there are thousands of companies around the world you can invest in, hundreds of O&G companies that also have access to resources and strong upside…even in PBR’s backyard. For any prudent investor to take a position, they must look at the potential rewards, and ALL the risks. PBR faces enormous technical risk to develop its reserves…I’m talking the possibility of massive delays, cost overruns, and potential accidents. There’s financial risk; PBR will need to dip into the equity markets again and again, and they won’t always get $67B just like that. And drumroll…….the dreaded government risk! They essentially forced PBR to buy $43B worth of reserves for which they don’t have the money, capacity, infrastructure, or manpower to develop for years. With billions of reserves they already own in the ground, why buy more now, and at such a high-price. Do you think XOM’s management in PBR’s position would’ve paid $8.51/bbl?? I don’t think so. Gov’t just wanted a bigger piece of the pie.

      The bottom line is that we’re not hatin’ on PBR…we’re just thorough. Considering the amount of companies to invest in worldwide, I just don’t feel PBR has the best risk to reward ratio. Now if this thing drops under $30, I’ll start to dip in haha. $25, and I’m posting messages just like you ;)

      GL…and always do your homework before investing, this is your hard earned $$ you’re playing with.

      • 2 Replies to robstrong94
      • Rob if you did DD, tell me what type of crude is PBR in control off?

        Would you consider it of high quality or poor?

        Do you think it matters?

        Who buys most of PBR oil , is it China or the USA?

        Can you really predict money flows into a stock, if the 4th qtr continues up MM will put money to work and PBR will benefit.

        There is always better opportunities LOL... UPL, Petrobank I feel are cheaper than PBR, however with pbr you get 25 years + in stability. I see a nice return on investment here over the next 10 years with much less risk than you state, the Brazilan economy is doing well and with the Olympic buildout coming should continue too out perform. Also have liked CZZ and own.

      • nice post rob, i hear you , and you are right i did not do my homework on pbr. i got caught on some structured product at 50... doubled up at 30 something... i'm quite sure i'm out around 40... and yes there are many other better stocks to buy and/or short by the way... i was just giving my point on the governments role in this and the "bigger piece of the pie " , i just do not agree, thanks, GL.

    • Arwen nice post its not that they see it wrong, they know PBR is a powerhouse in the energy business and will supply the world over time! They also know that they just raised a massive amount of money which will enable them to extract some of the highest quality crude oil on the planet! These are not investors like myself, they are short term traders that look to profit fast and get out, so they use scare tactics, lies, rumors, and few facts. They even attack any positive posters! Like anyone buys or sells stock using a message board!

      Bottom line the world is going to use allot of oil and gas over the next 100 years, and well PBR has a allot of it and will sell it at price higher and higher each year! Maybe will don't boom up now but I see 100 for this stock some day! AS for Brazil being commies! LOL... Brazil has a more free market structure than Canada! Dopes!

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