This is really a political play, as everyone agrees the economic potential is huge. But is the risk/reward worth it? I would appreciate Longs sharing their opinion - cheers and good luck:
Rousseff fully supports the Lula government's drive to heighten government control over massive newfound oil reserves, and she helped draft the proposal. The move includes the creation of a new state company to manage the reserves, a requirement that state-owned oil company Petrobras operate every field, and a new fund to invest oil revenue into education, health and other development projects.
She is likely to continue to push Petrobras to align its goals with government policy, which could result in a more limited role for foreign companies in the sector.
She will probably START doing the things you mentioned . They see petrobras as the rest of Brazil . A long term project. Believe it or not they have been planning things in advance for decades and will continue to do so. So my take on it is ,,,, she will use this company for " state purposes " little by little milking the cow... but she will also feed it very well. Eventually , lets say 20 years Petrobas should/could be one of the top 3 company in the world if not the biggest.. Pays the strangest of dividends , ... but it is requiered by law so will continue to do so . B R A ZILs economy and growth CO-Exist with this baby. I do NOT like socialists in general , unless they spend the $ VERY wisely, but Brazil IS a different animal. It's a no brainer. They will not let a bubble form, so no 500% gains ahead,,... they will never let it be in the SH.. ! So anything under 30 would be a huge surprise for me. Personally i'm out at 40 , should take 6-8 month. I hope.. GL.
Dilmas*s election means NO CHANGE to the plan... she has been on top of this all along.
I think Arwen*s comment about long term planing is interesting... what is for sure is that Brazil wont impose change on Petrobras and then change it all back because of a change in administration...
...Unlike a pathetic polity like the USA where one party works a year to pass legislation and then the losers return with threats to reverse/undo the hard-won changes. We are so hopelessly polarized that even if anything gets done, it could be undone 2 years later... That is no way to run a two-bit mom and pop shop, much less the world*s greatest power.