You cannot make a bet when you do not know who is playing. Right ? How fast did Obama appear ? One " wow " (perfect) speech (which he didn't right of course ) at one convention. I saw that live and thougth to myself why i liked republicans and he will be presi in 4 years , and voila.. Where peoples feelings are right now, any Republican superstar "could appear. It's all about saying or not saying the right thing at the right time.