Re fickle consumers..
It's the consumer in the the growth markets of the world that I'm wondering about.
Personally, I see them as being a bit more practical (and different)and that works against the marketing mindset of US consumer products companies.
Where a US company could sell a new product by simply tweaking things a little and push sales with an advertising program in years past, I'm not so sure that'll work as well in Asia or elsewhere.
Maybe in 10 or 15 years when these growth markets have the basics better looked after, but it seems to me that things like financial services, appliances and home furnishings might be better areas to be exposed to in these markets.
Obviously, that speaks to commodities too so met coal, copper demand not going away and I feel good about buy and hold in those sectors.
I really hate trying to predict the future of companies that cater to consumers changing tastes.
In fact, I look for those types of plays to short when the time is right because it's inevitable that these companies drop the ball at some point.
i did/nt answer before because i really had nothing smart to say, but i always read your posts carefully Doc.
I have been " stuck " with pfizer for a long time... 2 long but it's a small position with a decent divy. However, since the ceo resigned today i think it reaches the late highs around 17.8 this week and then i will sell . probably to go in the LED business as musk suggests.
The AAPL brand had cachet even before they had decent products. Now they have the cachet AND the products. Which is not to say that their brand cachet is guaranteed... but it has never been stronger. I do get your point...
(BTW, I would not say that Facebook has kicked Google to the curb... the two sites do what they do very well, but they do completely different things. People spend time on Facebook playing games, chatting, blogging and sharing photos. FB is still discovering how to monetize the traffic. If you need information or you need to locate a resource, you go to Google. Google makes a fortune from pay per click on a profit-maximizing auction basis -- the is no question as to its revenue model. My wife likes FB, but I dont use it and do not really care. I never considered Google cool, just brutally useful and efficient. I love the search tool, Google earth, Google Sky and You-Tube. But I think the company is wasting resources on too many off-strategy schemes in search of the next big thing.)
I agree semis are looking good into January. My current long positions include: USD (the 2x ETF), SNDK, BRCM, niche players ASYS, VECO, CREE, RBCN, and AIXG. The last four are all in the LED business. Lighting is the next frontier for digital convergence.
Everything you say is right on, Musk, but kids and other consumers are fickle. In just the last two years, Facebook has kicked Google to the curb as the cool new internet site to be.
APPL will probably go up more in the next year. If your time frame is longer than that MSFT is probably the better buy, but the main thing is that they are both solid companies with a ton of cash and little debt.
FWIW, my newsletter service says the semiconductor names are setting up well here. You might want to look into them, Musk.
Cool. Great to hear from you, Fred, after many moons.
I was not aware that MSFT was a leader in internet security. When they show me that they are, I might get interested in this aspect of the story.
Frankly, I think the gaming play looks the strongest, the cellular play may be interesting, and the corporate refresh something that is business as usual (i.e. if they cannot even make that a home-run, they might as well liquidate.)
Among all the possible Value, GARP, Growth, and Momentum plays available, I just do not know where MSFT fits in. To me they are the perennial under-performer.
For the biggest company in the world to lose half of its value in 10 years... well, that is a travesty. Someone should get fired. I can be convinced otherwise, but I need to be convinced.
The only way the so-called "cloud" will become widely adopted is if someone convinces businesses that using it is safe, and in that regard Microsoft, with it's vast installed base is the gatekeeper. I think MSFT is a great value right now.
Cool. Maybe that will help the stock.. Mr Softie is at risk of getting left in the dust.
Here is a chart showing that over 20 years, the two stocks have done equally well. But in the last 10 years, AAPL has solidly trounced MSFT and the slope of appreciation in recent years suggests that that out-performance will continue. While history is no guarantee of future results, MSFT has been flat to lower, a losing proposition, for a decade.
Hi musk , i think a 7 inch samsung tablet is better and more practical for walking around buzios... I do not and probably never will own any apple products. Basically i am a windows user not fan but USER... so any tablet i may own in the future will be windows7 based...
I think msft is making a comeback and might rule the mobile game market , that is where it will find growth.
What you say is true, Doc, but...
1. Apple enjoys first mover status in key categories
2. It is a fashion brand as much as a tech company
3. This enables premium pricing and wide margins
4. Kids stand on line to buy Apple products everywhere they are sold
5. The i-pod is a good example of a strategy which call for first mover advantage, regular product enhancement, premium pricing... What is that SanDisk player called? Who knows, nobody cares. The i-pad looks to be a similar case.
OTOH: I do not own a single Apple product b/c, like you, I cannot justify the prices differential. (Cannot speak for you, but I am cheap and relatively immune to fashion and advertising.) I will be tempted by an I-pad with more memory and USB slots.
The company resently reported y/o growth of 65-70%. The P/E for next year is 14. I largely missed the move from 240-$300. But I bot around $300 and I think the stock goes to $400 in a year.