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Petr Message Board

  • musketeernumberone musketeernumberone Feb 1, 2011 3:47 PM Flag

    Please, help me find a better investment

    than PWER, which makes converters that help alt energy sources (solar, wind) connect to the grid...

    Market Cap (intraday)5: 1.19B
    Enterprise Value (Feb 1, 2011)3: 953.41M
    Trailing P/E (ttm, intraday): 15.56
    Forward P/E (fye Jan 3, 2012)1: 8.89 Nice
    PEG Ratio (5 yr expected)1: 0.41 Great
    Price/Sales (ttm): 1.39 Good
    Price/Book (mrq): 4.68

    Profitability
    Profit Margin (ttm): 12.11%
    Operating Margin (ttm): 24.07%
    Management Effectiveness
    Return on Assets (ttm): 25.22%
    Return on Equity (ttm): 50.51% Awesome
    Income Statement
    Revenue (ttm): 823.41M
    Revenue Per Share (ttm): 8.97
    Qtrly Revenue Growth (yoy): 213.60% Whoa!!!
    Gross Profit (ttm): 96.29M

    Total Cash (mrq): 194.59M
    Total Cash Per Share (mrq): 1.82
    Total Debt (mrq): 39.67M

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    • Fortunately, I started with a small position in PWER. I did more than average down, I bought the farm this morning, like 500% more ... lol
      I'll dump half of what I bought today before close. Sometimes you just gotta buy when it looks ugly.

      I pretty much bought at $9, not sure if it will break beyond $9.32 today or not. It's really doing some volume today. The highest volume day I could find in recent months was in Oct.... 39M shares. Today will break that easily.

    • Thanks, RG. Good stuff.

      PWER may be a steal at $9, but *excess inverter inventory in the channel*... that is the kiss of death (temporarily). Declining subsidies is also poison in the short term for the pps.

      Depending on what happens today, I may sell and come back later for another look.

      If Id had JDSU I would be up 20% after earnings, not down ;-(

    • musk, I never went to the University... so don't ask me for a thesis ... :)

      MSI ... let's start here; http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=MSI&t=1y&l=on&z=l&q=b&p=&a=&c=
      I love playing down gaps. Now, let's move on to here; http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=MSI+Key+Statistics. Note cash per share and book value.

      CYD- yes... a holding company, but a money making machine. I like it for the "GYMCL" aspect of the company.
      The Chinese government is backing their clean diesel motor, CAT could get screwed over there.

      Solar ... I've been in and out of for years, beginning with ENER in 2007, along with STP & JASO. Most recently taking a short ride on LDK. These solar stocks are fickle as anything.
      Changing wind direction with the price of crude oil, and the latest news on government subsidies. Am I crazy about solar ?... not really, just trades.

      YHOO - Yes Yahoo, I use it for many internet pages. would I buy it only for that reason ? ... no. Do I use Google ? Yup, when I need a through search. I've not traded YHOO for years. Price, volume and options tells me something might be going on... I could be wrong on this one for sure.
      http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-03/yahoo-calls-are-most-active-in-u-s-after-single-bullish-trade.html?cmpid=yhoo
      BTW- Yahoo has good exposure in Japan with it's subsidiarity Yahoo Japan, and a healthy stake in Alibaba.com(44%). It's another turn around story. If you add the market value of Alibaba & Yahoo Japan & $2.20 in cash per share... YHOO stock is trading cheap.

      LVS may take a while, but I'm confident LVS and WYNN will be big winners in Asia in the long run. I'm not a long term holder in LVS. But I've rode the mid $40's up to $49 a couple of times before the last one this week... looks like heavy selling Friday.

      LNG is just a trade, if I get back in, I'll be out at $10.... it will still take years for LNG to become profitable.

      I'll be buying more PWER on Friday... ARE YOU KIDDING ME ? ... Wall St. is so full of BS. They guide down after quarter after quarter of beating estimates and Wall St. can't read between the lines. At $9 per share, the company is a STEAL !!

    • hey wins... Wall St. is just a tough gig sometimes. Sometimes it's a straight up numbers game. Then other times, the numbers are fine and you gotta sift through the games and the BS.

      I have not followed PCX for some time now. But Wall St. is great at distorting CC's. Seems if you don't exceed "projected" revenues and earnings expectations... you get a haircut with a number 1
      LVS met expectations... but it was not good enough... but they will be back up... not too worried.

      More than that, even if you exceed on both counts, as in the case of PWER, if you sandbag and guide down.... same result.... OUCH ! I'll be buying more PWER on Friday.

    • Saw headline, something about less subsidies affecting sales...one of my concerns.

      Don't feel bad, I'm taking it on the chin with PCX even though they reported much better than expected results.

      Humongous trading volume last couple of days based on a large insider sale. (11 % holder sold AH yesterday)

      Doesn't change the fundamentals so I'm hanging tough.

      this reinforced by the tone I got from the CC.

      My ense is management was quite cocky as to future for met coal prices and in no hurry to sell uncommited volumes which are significant in terms of their total met coal output.

      One of my concerns was they might have already sold a big chunk of these uncommited volumes of met coal.

      Assuming projected met output this year of 8-8.3 mln tonnes, they have between 3 and 3.3 mln tonnes of coal that is going to fetch nice prices this year.

      That's in addition to some thermal that will also be priced at higher levels this year and even more so in the next couple of years.

      No expert on other coal names but my guess is there's lots of upside leverage to coal prices from a lot of thermal producers as a lot of old legacy priced LT contracts roll over in the years to come.

      Good argument for coal in a conservative portfolio?

      would be nice to see a schedule of proportionate contracted sales for all the coal names if there is such a thing.

    • CYD is a diesel and hybrid diesel engine. The only one so far approved for China's soon coming air standards.

      Hey musk, I'm tired and will get back to ya on some of those trades. Taking a whooping AH's . LVS numbers just fine... but taking a beating AH. As is PWER... earnings ? I may have to average down on that one. Wow LOL... I was only in the trade for one day... lol. That's about the fastest I ever got it jamed up my B-hole and broken off.... haha.

    • I'll echo that. Good feedback and points made by both of you.

      As to CYD, that's a new one to me that sounds interesting.

      But looking at it, I'm not sure how similar it is to WPRT and others in the pure NG engine space.


      It seems to track CMI more than WPRT or FSYS.
      http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=CMI+Interactive#chart2:symbol=cmi;range=1y;compare=wprt+fsys+cyd;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined

      And except for most recent YOY revenue growth based on Yahoo stats(-4.4% ?)... most CYD metrics compare quite favorably to CMI.

      http://finance.yahoo.com/q/co?s=CYD+Competitors

      And based out of Singapore so close to the action too.

      But that poor revenue growth metric is a concern.

      Anything to explain that, I wonder.

    • VECO is tough to time... I want to hold but I do not want to lose money on it, been in/out/in since November... frustrating.

      MSI -- What is your investment thesis?

      CYD -- Interesting choice, I like NG engine tech. The stock is leaving WPRT and FSYS in the dust. Nice tip.

      http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=CYD+Interactive#chart3:symbol=cyd;range=1y;compare=wprt+fsys;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on

      JKS - another good choice. The numbers are pretty compelling. Chart similar to ASYS. I was not aware you were into solar tech. Please keep us informed... could be the investment opportunity of the decade.

      YHOO -- As a user, I get it. As an investor... not. Where is the mojo?

      LVS -- If you are long term holder... my congrats. 10x in a year WHooohooo! Have you mentioned this before? I coulda used summa dat! So, what is driving this bad boy going forward?

      TTM -- You have mentioned this before... down almost 30% since November, Up 7% today... SWEET. I sold my F, maybe TTM is my next auto investment. Have you seen the new Tandoori model? It is hot, hot, hot. Hacha, Babu?

      TEVA - OMG what a dog. I am still trying to scrape this sucker off my shoe. I love the company, but the stock is dooo dooo. In my universe, the only worse stock is PBR.

      LNG -- Dunno... Charif Souki*s previous business did not turn out as planned, and now he wants investors to speculate on his new business. I am not rich enough to speculate and I am not smart enough to separate the huckster from the business man... And he is neither businessman, nor huckster, enough to separate me from my money. GL on this one, its a crap shoot. Nice chart, though.

      Thanks, RG, for sharing your ideas... Great stuff!

    • VECO will be in winner in the long haul, I don't know why it's so outta favor.
      I tell ya, that PWER is stacked with shorts, either they are right and the stock gets crushed... or the shorts all heads for the door at the same time... lol.

      Anyway, I gave up my VECO weeks back and am looking for a re-entry point. Technically, it looks like it could find support in the low $40's, but if not we might see the mid $30's.

      A couple of other issues I'm taking small positions besides PWER(thanks to you) are MSI, CYD & JKS.
      A large position in YHOO.
      Also, holding my LVS, and adding to my TTM. Still trading in and out of TEVA.
      I'll look for a re-entry on LNG after after taking profits yesterday.


      GL

    • Very cool. Bit early stage for me. Hopefully, someday, I will make a buck on VECO, spintronics or not.. the dog has fleas and I keep taking it for a walk!

      Spintronics - robotic PR technology, fully programmable, shifts with the wind, never needs makeup and hair.

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