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Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobra Message Board

  • docjoe999 docjoe999 Feb 16, 2011 12:39 PM Flag

    Contrarian view on the dollar

    I was talking to my bro yesterday and said that all inflation in the commodity markets was due to QE and not demand or supply, but I should mention that the QE is not solely being done by the Fed. In fact, China percentage wise has done more QE (i.e. money printing) than the U.S. has.

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    • <doc, long time no see.
      Thank you for pointing out the down-right fraud of Daniel Cohen (AFN)I sold out and put my money elsewhere and did very good.>

      Thanks for the compliment, and it is good to hear from you, my friend.

      <China, and Australia are in real estate bubble,I do not know about India, Brazil,I think Canada as a whole is over value, Vancouver is bubble.However,the banks in Canada do not have high risk,all the mortgages with less than 20% down is insured by CMHC,a taxpayer backed housing and mortgage insurance information in Canada.Not good for taxpayers though.>

      I am not sure how I feel about Canadian banks. Remember it was RBC that was the one that lent Danny Boy a lot of money, and their analyst called for a target of AFN of 50 cents.

      My brother is convinced Canadian banks are going to fall, and I think he is probably right. The problem is the timing. David Rosenberg (Rosie) does an almost daily email "Breakfast with Dave", and he addresses a lot of the Canadian problems.

      Also, Mish Shedlock has been on the Canadian housing bubble, but his guru is Australian economist Steve Keen. Keen may be the most brilliant economist (Yeah, I know that is almost always an oxymoron.) that I have ever read. Keen is highly skeptical of the bubbles that have been mentioned and is predicting their crash.

      We have a really good group here on the PBR board, and I am glad that you have chosen to join us. Even the people I clash with, I have respect for. Like with DA on the old AFN forum, sometimes I learn more from those I disagree with than agree with.

      PBR has kind of been dead money these days, so we discuss everything. I hope you are a frequent contributor here:)

    • I saw something stats about China and the tightening of their money supply. After they tighten their stock market historically does very poorly in the trailing 12 months. I want to say the back test I saw was 1991 and 1997. China has too much money chasing too few goods and it's evident in their real estate market.

      I agree with the comment Doc made about China, Australia, Canada. They have real estate bubbles that just haven't popped yet. I was watching house hunters international in Toronto and it's nuts.

      The people that want to buy in good neighborhood suddenly have their expecations shifted when the nice agent takes them to the real neighborhood they can afford. These people were "savers" and they couldn't afford a decent place. Then I saw a young couple of "super savers" with over 100K saved ( maybe 150K) of cash. They refused to over spend. Know where they ended up? Bad far out location and bad place. Keep in mind most people are not crazy savers like them. So what does that tell you about the market?

    • by the way the "rental cost " for january 2011 is us$60,000 !!!???

      Its two small houses , new . Some 400 m2 , 5 bedroom in all nice salt/heated pool, on the beach . STill
      !!! something is wrong here.

    • I want to give my input , i have lived in south america for 20 years + and prices seem very very high in ARG , BR , Uruguay IMO.

      Most ridiculous cost i have seen in the last 12 month.
      Water bill for a house in Punta del este Uruguay january 2010 . us$1000 . The gardener actually said that was "cheap "
      ....Something is wrong here ! (argentines and brazilian buy in uruguay for tax purposes..)

    • China printing to replaces the wore out bills. Also China included food and energy to calculate the inflation number, U.S. excluded food and energy as an inflation factor.

    • China printing for real growth.

      The Bernanke is printing for what???

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