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Petr Message Board

  • jaquecroissant jaquecroissant Mar 23, 2011 2:45 PM Flag

    Time to buy Brazil

    Looks like the rotation is happening. I'm glad I got in at 34! Nobody is going to wait for the next 5 years to hop on this train.

    The market is indeed a discounting machine! Good ole Ben Graham was right all along.

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    • For sure. Now that I'm a stay at home dad, that's definitely part of my 'work' day.

    • What about

      - surf cable tv (except Fox News)
      - make new friends and enemies on Yahoo Boards
      - pray the next black swan doesnt poop on your portfolio

    • You guys are evolving just as planned, and giving a hint into your age. Younger than me, that's for sure.

      Here's the evolution for you to look forward to, post jazz phase:

      News radio
      News politcized (Rush...)
      Sports radio
      Oldies w/ sports radio
      Finally, surfing all
      (Musk - don't get stuck in the Rush phase)

    • Musk, you got me going now! Vai and Satriani are great players. Yngwie.....what else can I say.

      I got back into playing for fun and I couldn't decide which direction to take.....sweep arpeggio neo classical metal or jazz. Sounds funny right? I figured at my age, jazz made a bit more sense haha. Why not learn all you can....each style has something to offer.

      I've got pretty fast chops having grown up playing Michael Schenker and Judas Priest licks. I just ended up at this age more intrigued by melody.

      My dream: Build up a Warmoth Tele with a scalloped fingerboard. Humbucker in the neck position, in fact probably both humbuckers. I love hi frets,,,,the higher the can really get under the strings and bend em. Most jazzers don't bend as much given the heavier gauge etc. I'm torn between archtops and Telecasters. Different tones obviously. A lot of jazzers love Teles! I never thought I'd like playing with flatwound 12's on a 25 1/4" scale neck but that's where I'm at. I played Gibsons for years with 9's and then 10's. Now light strings feel like toys under my fingers. 11's are a nice compromise if you like bending.

      Scalloped fingerboards are nice for the bends. I don't really like to feel the wood anyway.

    • Yea... Dorian and Phrygian are the first 2 positions for much of rock and blues. The others give you the rest of the neck and much of western music! Ionian = Major Scale. Aeolian and Mixolydian are the other important ones. Cool stuff.

      You have more metal than me... ya gotta check Stave Vai and Joe Satriani... these guys are from another planet... but they play rock! Yngwe Malmsteen is Ritchie Blackmore at warp speed and on steroids - Strat with scalloped fret-board, huge classical music influence. Unbelievable.



    • Thanks Musket! I'll get to work on them. I know all the licks are ultimately derived from them.
      I know dorian and phyrgian and a lot of major and minor variants, I just need to hone the skills.....I guess most rockers do haha....Blackmore etc. My roots are in 70s rock. Scorpions, AC/DC, UFO, Montrose, ZZ Top, Alice Cooper, Aerosmith Cheap Trick, Bad Company,.....the list could go on forever. Gotta go for now!

    • If you believe in LT fundamentals, I agree Brazil looks very good on a relative basis.

      Ditto for most EM's relative to OECD countries.

      And given high oil prices, the EM's still have the option to lower interest rates should oil prices go higher and have negative effects on their respective econommies because they aren't already near zero.

      IOW, the emerging mkts central bankers have room to lower rates if needed whereas the OECD countries already have rates close to zero.

      If already at 2 or 3% (or lower) just how stimulative can a reduction in rates be?

      So the OECD will print or take a harsh dose of bad tasting medicine but I really don't think they have the guts.

      So more printing is most likely what we'll see and it won't do a darn thing in terms of the economy or creating jobs. But hey, Wall Street likes it and we'll see more millionaires.

      You can't print jobs.

    • Whoa, that article was a lot of voodoo mumbo-jumbo.

      Here is a 6 month chart of Brazil: ITUB (Financial Services), GGB (Steel), VALE (Iron Ore), and BRF (ETF for Brazilian small caps), and PBR (Diversified Petroleum);range=6m;compare=itub+ggb+vale+brf;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined

      Call me blind, but I fail to see a decisive move up. Maybe the last week or two have been up, but these stocks are still well below any recent high. The best performer in the near term has been PBR on the back of a huge spike in oil prices and global energy shares. Except for PBR, the trend, YTD, is down and to the right.

      That said... I think there is reason for optimism -- World Cup, Olympics, Infrastructure spending, growing middle class, consumer credit, etc. But I need to see a real change in money flows, a significant appreciation of the Real (unlikely) or a change in sentiment (the direction of stock prices) before committing significant capital back to Brazil.

      Notably, I have made the most money previously in BRF -- fast growing small caps, significant exposure to the consumer sector... a good bet on Brazil.

      - Click on same chart, 1 year. BRF rocks! I got out in early winter...
      - Click on same chart, 2 year... see what a dog PBR has been, relative to everything else (no bashing, just the facts).

      (Do you play guitar, Jacque?)

      • 1 Reply to musketeernumberone
      • PBR is a long term hold for me. I know it's a slow mover compared to my other holdings. I still like what they are sitting on. I agree on the smaller cap stuff.....more growth.

        EBIX has been a great one for me. But I recall you don't like software. Read up on them, I think they've got a nice moat in the insurance exchange biz. They have great numbers.

        As for guitar, yes. I'm attempting to teach myself jazz. Played rock for years. Now I'm listening to Wes Montgomery, Herb Ellis, Mike Stern, Jimmy Bruno, etc. Too many names. Lots to learn. I'm slowly working on it. Lot's of technique. I'm just learning licks by ear the way Wes did with Charlie Christian records. I don't read traditional notation...just tabs. I know guys like Mike Stern read but I'm just doing it for fun.

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