He is the man that bought and paid for the whore Obama. Look for more US government money to be poured into PBR and continued assault by the President on domestic drilling. Soros and the DNC will make money off from Americas misery.
<In other words corruption, which should be prosecuted wherever it happens, still cannot prevent increased supply from bringing prices down for any significant length of time.>
First off, Ilap, you are dead wrong. John D. Rockefeller showed that you could manipulate oil markets despite supply and demand numbers for decades. His manipulative methods allowed him to be the world's richest man. In terms of one individual owning the percentage wealth of a nation, he makes Bill Gates look like a piker.
Second, you say that corrupt business practice should be prosecuted. How do you prosecute something that is legal? Yes, you fool, front running, insider trading, and hoarding are all legal in the commodity markets, and they have been since 2000.
See the link: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commodity_Futures_Modernization_Act_of_2000
"First, any transaction in exempt commodities between “eligible contract participants” (acting as “principals”) not executed on a “trading facility” was exempted from most CEA provisions (other than fraud and anti-manipulation provisions). Even the fraud provisions were excluded for transactions between “eligible commercial entities.”
Now who in the world would want the government to be excluded from prosecuting fraudulent transactions? Enron, and their lobbyists wrote this law.
<As for how much of an effect the GOM ban is having, I'm not smart enough to know that, but it has to be greater than zero.>
It is zero. The most that these wells could have produced is a few hundred thousand barrels a day. Total oil production in the U.S. is only 5.5 mbpd.
The last STEO (short term energy outlook) from the EIA showed OPEC had 4.12 mbpd of spare capacity and that Saudi Arabia had 3.25 mbpd of spare capacity. What proof do you have that Saudi Arabia is not willing to sell us the extra 200,000 or so bpd that we could have gotten from drilling in the GOM? Are you saying the EIA's STEO report is wrong?
If you want to say that the drilling ban hurt American jobs, I agree with that, but I think given the oil spill that it was prudent to make sure safety regulations were being followed. It wasn't just BP that screwed up. The regulators who were supposed to be regulating BP were bought and paid for by the oil industry. The corrupt bureaucrats partially responsible for the spill needed to be weeded out.
"Anyone starting up a company in 2008 drilling for natural gas offshore seems destined to failure IMO. It seems to me that they failed because natural gas prices stayed low. "
They were a spin-off of some pretty junky shallow water assets from Pride. I don't think anybody thought "hey lets start a jack-up only, gas directed driller", so much as PDE wanted to get a better multiple instead of having the company priced as if it was all jack ups.
It left PDE with a better multiple, and Seahawk with pretty shaky legs, given the nat gas prices recently and the abundant supply of old jack-up gear vs tepid demand. The only intelligent MB discussion I'd ever read about Seahawk revolved around whether they or HERO were the best short due to their fundamental weaknesses.
I do think the feds over-reacted in the shallow water, choking way back on permits when the risk profile (water depth, surface-mounted BOPs, gas orientation etc...) didn't really call for much reaction at all. I'd agree that they were the straw that broke the camel's back, but it was a pretty sickly camel.
"There's an oversupply of crude oil in the US?"
Yes. Why do you think WTI is so much cheaper than Brent?
Amount of oil stored in the SPR and at Cushing has never been higher.
If you want to blame Obama for higher oil prices, you can. Just do it the right way.
Obama has not made the CFTC pony up position limits on speculator positions. This is part of the law that was just passed. He is every bit in Wall Street's pocket as Bush was. In fact, he may be worse because now with the new financial law just passed, commodity limits were supposed to be put in.
But they haven't been. In fact, just last week, the CFTC kicked the can further down the road.
The ban on drilling in the GOM has had nothing to do with oil going up in price because there hasn't been a supply issue with oil.
What kills me about people like you Ilap is that you all claim to be free market types but don't get see the markets are corrupted and anything but free.
You can be a free market guy but be against front running, insider trading, and hoarding, and all three of those things are currently legal in the commodity markets.
And no one, Republican or Democrat, wants to fix these issues.
don't believe your crap. makes no sense at all unless you are fanatically oblivious to republican propaganda.
drilling more into the US won't matter much to local oil prices, first because there is already an oversupply in the US (see inventories at Cushing delivery point) second because that new oil would be sold anyway by oil companies at market prices, not at cost, and they will make they money not the consumer.
pbr and soros is very old news and pre-deepwater. don't you remember that obama was, before deepwater, taken a very pro-drilling position!