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Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobra Message Board

  • ilap2004 ilap2004 Apr 12, 2011 9:45 AM Flag

    History bodes ill for stock market


    I don't generally try to time the market but I'm seriously thinking about lightening up on stocks, based on things like this article and other indicators, including insider selling and heavy bullish sentiment among others.

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    • I've got a good bit of dry powder already. Will wait till a 10 to 20% correction. Hard to time these things exactly. I use some technical indicators to help in the timing. I'm letting my winners run(for tax purposes). In general, there is a bit too much bullishness in the market currently......just my opinion.

      I would be a buyer after a correction......where else to go anyway in this environment. Bill Gross is shorting bonds and he is the bond guru. If you buy good companies cheap enough, you will blow away any other asset.

      • 2 Replies to jaquecroissant
      • <I think the last couple day’s looks like Obama’s buddies at Goldman set oil up for a short they get brownie points and make money at the same time.>

        <Bill Gross is shorting bonds and he is the bond guru.>

        I think the economy at this point is being more managed by the federal reserve than at any time in history.

        This is from Matt Taibbi's blog, "I came across the curious case of the Arab Banking Corporation, better known as ABC, while researching a story about the results of the audit of the Federal Reserve. That story, which will be coming out in Rolling Stone in two weeks, will examine in detail some of the many lunacies uncovered by Senate investigators amid the recently-released list of bailout and emergency aid recipients – a list that includes many extremely shocking names, from foreign industrial competitors to hedge funds in tax-haven nations to various Wall Street figures of note (and some of their relatives). You will want to see this amazing list when it comes out, so please make sure to check the newsstands in two weeks’ time."

        I can't wait for this story.

        As for what the federal reserve/Bernanke wants, IMO Bernanke wants to give Obama the election in 2012 and is manipulating the market to do so.

        So Bernanke beats down the dollar, and in doing so, he gets people out of cash and into all other asset classes. This gives people the illusion of prosperity.

        Obama's chief economic adviser admitted to the government's goal of a weaker dollar and made the ridiculous statement that a weak dollar is good for the average American.

        Now we come to the Bill Gross statement, and he is anti-dollar too and is out of bonds. Hmmmmm!! Zero Hedge caught Bill Gross on CNBC spouting off data from the government before it was released to the public. So are Bill Gross' comments and position about treasuries and the dollar truly his own POV? Or is he doing what he is told?

        Ken Lewis, former CEO of Bank of America, was told to complete the acquisition of Merrill Lynch by Hank Paulson, then Secretary of Treasury, or he would be thrown out as CEO. This was another example of government meddling.

        $4 gasoline is a threat to Obama's re-election campaign, and I get the feeling like dtrroaddog posted that someone in the Obama administration told Goldman Sachs/Morgan Stanley to get the price of oil lower in the last few days, and that is why we are seeing this dramatic fall in oil prices.

        The real issue to me is can these guys keep it up. The market is bigger than anyone, and that includes the fed. At some point, all this stimulus has to stop and then what happens?

      • <<< If you buy good companies cheap enough, you will blow away any other asset. >>>

        I don't disagree with your statement, but sometimes that is easier said than done.

        I remember in 2008 MOS corrected from $145, I thought that $80 was a good price. I mean who woulda thought that food was going outta style ? I sold out somewhere in the $60's, I still took an arse woopin on MOS.
        From the top, it only took MOS less than five months to hit $23 I eventually bought back at $30 and sold around $40. Now almost three years later, the stock is still less than $80.

    • I think the last couple day’s looks like Obama’s buddies at Goldman set oil up for a short they get brownie points and make money at the same time. I plan on holding oil Nat gas and utilities I missed out on 30% of the silver rush by selling into a small correction that is not happening this time.

    • Not a bad idea, I already trimmed back on the long side.
      I'm not one to buy the airlines. But if oil puts in a double top around $110 or better... I may get long the airlines for a trade on oil.

      Just sold my VXX. It took 11 trading days, but the SNP gap at 1320 was filled this morning. I'll look for another entry point on that one.

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