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Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras Message Board

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  • all4wishes all4wishes May 5, 2011 8:28 PM Flag

    any quick tutorials on why the PBR has not matched its peers?

    In Sept 2010 when oil was at $75/barrel, PBR had no problem raising $60B through the sale of stock at $35/share. Today PBR is the same price and oil is $100/barrel. Plus they have substantially more proven oil reserves and a handshake agreement with the US to supply us oil in the meantime.

    The BOSVEPA is down ytd due to higher interest rates. Plus the Brazilian gov't has capped how much PBR can raise prices for gasoline and natural gas.

    Check out a one year chart. Each time PBR hit 34ish it bounced back nicely. Do a three year chart and see PBR's all-time high in the 70s. A three year comparison chart for XOM, COP, CVX, etc shows those stocks at or near their three year highs.

    I bought more yesterday at 36.60 and more today at 34.60. To me, this and TOT are the cheapest oil stocks. I expect it to be back in the low 40s this summer.

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    • The stock doesn't track oil (or it's peers) very well.

      As All4 alluded to, PBR has a production level that pretty much syncs up with Brazil's oil consumption. They are the dedicated, in-house source and prices do not float like here. This means at times (rarely) the gas prices there hang above world market prices and (more often, like the past year) they have been below free market prices.

      PBR's production will grow, probably quite a lot, and probably the big majority of the marginal oil will be sold at world prices. So the current system will split into a dual domestic sales and export sales model. A big change, but one for which the timing and magnitude are not totally clear.

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