QE2 winds officially winds down in June. We can expect:
a. Stocks to fall in anticipation and then tread water depending on how the economy performs in 2H11.
b. Stocks will bounce around but trend down (they have already come down a bit) because QE2 did not really do anything anyway, except let banks and speculators get rich on the carry trade and commodity futures.
c. Stocks tank because QE2 was the only thing holding them up.
d. Stocks go up b/c the Fed would not take away the feeding tube unless the patient was healing nicely.
e. Stocks go up b/c the Fed institutes the desperately needed QE3.
Arwen, I think you mentioned the ETF TBT... If you think things are so bad, you do not want to buy TBT. Short Treasuries is a bet on rising interest rates. If we get QE3, rates will remain low for a long time more.