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Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobra Message Board

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  • jaquecroissant jaquecroissant May 26, 2011 1:31 PM Flag

    Charts-Precious Metals

    FCX is looking pretty cheap now. Very tempting, but I'm still going to wait a few months to put new money to work. There may be better ops in the tech space come fall. As for commodities, I did buy CLF recently at around 85, so I'm easing into the commodity space. I'm doing the Bill O'Neil mostly in the fall and sell in May.

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    • I like these guys' style of writing... and thinking most of the time.

      <<Let the boxing match begin!…In the near corner, we find deflation, with its furious fists of debt liquidation and credit contraction… And in the far corner, we’ve got Ben Bernanke’s printing press, with its menacing inflationary uppercut.

      Inflation will win this contest eventually, but the match might go the full 12 rounds.

      Deflation is no slouch. He packs a mean punch. Borrowers of all types – from single-family mortgage-holders to national governments – are defaulting on their loans…or moving rapidly in that direction. As the weakest of these borrowers fails, asset prices fall and confidence wanes, both of which produce additional defaults.>>

      Could you just imagine if deflation wins and what the fall-out might be like?

      thinking about people with mortgage debt servicing issues ...

      Imagine a scenario where the value of money (and what is owed) is increased if deflation were allowed ??

      And similarly with govt debt given debt at current levels?

      <<Based on official US data, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is up 3.2% over the last 12 months, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) is up 6.8%. Both numbers are higher than in recent history, but neither one seems particularly terrifying…on the surface.

      When you dig down into the numbers, however, you discover that these inflation rates are accelerating rapidly. During the first four months of this year, the CPI has jumped 9.7% annualized, while the PPI has soared at a 12.8% annualized pace.

      Import prices are also rocketing higher – up 2.2% in April, after a 2.6% jump the previous month. Year-over-year, import prices are up a hefty 11.1%. But once again, the trend is accelerating. For the first four months of this year, import prices have increased at a 26.7% annualized rate!>>

      He goes on further about how US workers' earnings are faring vs inflation over the last number of years as well as:

      "Preparing Your Investments for an Inflationary Future"

      Having Significant exposure to non-dollar revenues is cetainly something I would agree with but I might also include US based mining companies even if they have domestic operations and sales.

      Of course, the caveat being the prospect of a much larger burden of taxes for US business going forward.

      • 1 Reply to winsabokk
      • wins

        Inflation will win the fight. The government much prefers that we the people shoulder the burden of inflation, rather than the government shoulder the burden of deflation. The Fed simply will not allow deflation to occur if they have an option.
        If deflation begins to creep in, it's a license for them to borrow and print... a vicious never ending cycle till we finally drown in our own dollars.

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