Solar stocks are hot today - pun intended. Maybe they moved on the news that Germany is getting out of nuclear energy. This is huge b/c it suggests that renewable sources will attract even more attention in the form of mandated share, subsidies, investment and innovation.
NUKES - Its hard to be optimistic about the future of nuclear energy. I am no expert, but the risks are all too apparent. We can all see where Japan and Germany are headed. Imagine the industrys pain should a nuclear plant melt-down in France.
OIL - will remain our major energy source in the near term, but there finally seems to be a determined effort (political will, technological innovation, investment) to develop alternatives. Oil will serve a declining share of energy consumption, and be diverted to its many other uses (petro-chemicals, etc.) Of course, prices could rise -- or fall -- depending on supply, demand, geopolitics, etc.
NG - will serve an important bridge from the petroleum economy to green energy. It helps that much NG is a by-product of the search for oil, but the discovery of massive shale deposits and the development of tech to extract the gas suggests that NG will play a growing part of the global energy mix for the next century.
Solar -- is at the cusp... costs are declining due to large scale production and technological innovation, it will likely be a financially viable alternative to oil within 5 years.
Wind, tide and other recurring sources of energy may be behind solar, but they hold immense promise. LED is a technology that could transform lighting and vastly reduce the associated costs.
SO, do we, as investors, put our money on oil, NG, or new energy technologies?
I looked at the chart and the yahoo key statistics page for AONE.
The chart looks like imminent death. Shares are selling at 8x sales (expensive). There are no profits, only losses. Indeed, looking at the income statements for 2009 and 2010, sales grew just under 10% while losses almost doubled. The company is bleeding cash.
Compare with PWER, VECO, ASYS, SOLR or any of dozens of truly attractive small-cap investments and ask yourself: Where should I invest my hard-earned money?
What, pray tell, is your investment thesis for AONE?
*the next wave...*
I had not realized there was only one next wave. LOL
Innovation in battery technology is a very big deal and well worth our attention.
The bigger issue is: Where will the electricity stored be generated?
Even Winnie and I can agree: Not much environmental benefit to storing coal-generated electricity in the lithium-ion battery of your Prius.
I do not really know the best investment bet , but surely NG right now is the best choice for further development and a quick solution to the energy problem. The thing is for some reason , it is not liked.
solar and wind might he a very good ST trade but I wonder further out.
<<Solar -- is at the cusp... costs are declining due to large scale production and technological innovation, it will likely be a financially viable alternative to oil within 5 years.>>
I'm not so sure about that.
I think it quite possible that increasing material costs could start to hurt the competitiveness of solar and wind.
Rare earths and copper etc not likely to get cheaper.
So a continued reliance on subsidies which fewer countries can now afford.
Another way to play this might be to assume govt's around the world will make a mess of energy policy and cause major misalllocation of energy investment thus driving up all energy costs.
IOW, short those that might get hurt with higher energy costs.
Of course, if you have an inside track as to where and how the subsidies might be targeted, that could be of value as a longer term investor.