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  • musketeernumberone musketeernumberone Jun 27, 2011 7:30 AM Flag

    Good Read: US Economic Cycle

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-26/wall-street-doubles-s-p-500-revenue-growth-forecast-amid-stagnant-margins.html

    This article argues that we are in the the third of four phases in the current expansion: Profitability growth moderates, sales growth continues, stocks take a pause before moving significantly higher. The theory depends crucially on continued sales growth and on more hiring and investment by corporations....

    “We are downshifting to a more normal mid-cyclical environment,” said Kleintop. “That’s a good thing, it sustains the recovery. Even as profit margins might be stable or even falling, stocks will do reasonably well because people believe the growth is going to continue, even if at a slower pace.”

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    • Tell me about it lol.

      Yep, Austin is probably just a tad bit cooler. Great place, you would love it. I have many friends there.

      We have practically been a desert around here for the last few years. I wouldn't mind some rain.

    • The grass is always greener on the other side of the fence.

      Is it any cooler in Lake Country, Austin?

      It rains all the time in Oregon....

    • Yep, San Antonio.

      It is hot.....too hot.

      Oregon is actually sounding good to me lol! Portland, Salem, Eugene. Western Oregon sounds like a good place to me.

    • Thanks for the info about Mafra. It looks cool there. It looks hot there!

      I am familiar with the Chinati facility b/c my bro-in-law is an art dealer and represents the Donald Judd Foundation. I was not aware of the Prada installation, nor the McDonald Observatory.

      My kinda place!

      I forget, do you live in Texas, Jaq?

    • I love the harmonic minor! Not just eastern, LOTS of jazz is built around it: Django, Pat Metheney plays it, etc.

    • Ah very cool Musk! Thanks, the theory makes sense.

      I'll have to check out Cyberfret! Looks like a great place to learn for guys with backgrounds like us(blues, pentatonic).

      I have messed around with harmonic minor a bit....interesting eastern flavor!

    • So this is what I would call: Playing Bb Major and its Phrygian mode at D. The Phrygian mode contains the notes of the Bb Major scale, but since you are starting on D instead of Bb, the intervals between the notes are different. Phrygian is a minor scale, 2 half steps (frets) from the C which is the Dorian Mode (also minor) of Bb. These minor modes contain a flat-3rd (kind of the definition of a minor scale) and encompass the notes of the pentatonic minor scale, which is why they sound *bluesy*. Within a scale the modes are largely inter-changeable -- a seemless leap from one mode/position to another... Changing scales, or improvising on a mode of a DIFFERENT scale is the the hard part (for me)....

      (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minor_scale)

      You can also explore the progressions/chords/positions associated with other modes, all using the same set of notes, just starting on a different note of the major scale: E.g. Mixolydian (very *jazzy*), Lochrian, Lydian...

      I got some value from this article which connects the Greek Modes to Pentatonic scales. http://www.cyberfret.com/scales/paul-tauterouff/pentamodal-method/index.php

      The Cyberfet website is pretty good, especially the scale and chord finding application (Java required) --- highly recommended.

      http://www.cyberfret.com/scales/guitar-codex/index.php

    • Cool. I will try that.

      Maj7: Its major. Its kinda minor. Its a 7. What is not to like?

    • People believe the growth is going to continue.

      What planet does this clown live on the Obama bandied is falling off we are headed for a deeper recession.

    • Thanks Musk. I've been seeing these stories lately.

      Fedex CEO Fred Smith sounded positive after they had a good qtr.

      "FedEx 4Q net income rises 33 percent
      FedEx: US, global economy to grow as fuel prices drop from spring highs
      ap



      NEW YORK (AP) -- FedEx Corp. expects the global economy to hit a higher gear later this year as fuel prices retreat from three-year highs and the Japanese economy recovers.

      While much of the growth will be driven by China and other developing nations, FedEx said the U.S. economy will improve as well.

      "We believe the industrial sector will lead growth in the United States and overseas in the next two years," Chairman Frederick W. Smith said Wednesday, as the world's second-largest package delivery company released its quarterly earnings report.

      FedEx expects the U.S. economy to grow 2.5 percent this year and 3 percent in 2012. The International Monetary Fund expects the U.S. economy to grow 2.5 percent this year and 2.7 percent in 2012.

      The company's outlook assumes that oil and fuel prices will remain below peak levels from earlier this year. The benchmark price for oil in the U.S. topped out at about $114 per barrel. It's now around $95 per barrel.

      "The impact of fuel prices, as always, will influence the pace of growth," Smith said.

      The Memphis, Tenn., company is considered a bellwether of global economic health among analysts and economists because it ships a wide variety of goods. Its financial performance reflects the ups and downs of business and consumer spending."

      • 2 Replies to jaquecroissant
      • Aggregate profits and margins are meaningless in the US.

        profits are all overstated because losses are often left off balance sheet....especially in the financial sector.

      • Thanks for that, Jaq... good news, I guess.

        How is your guitar playing? I have a lot of time and am making slow, painstaking progress... but VERY satisfying.

        I looked at some tabs from Jason Mraz and they opened up some new lines... esp. use of Maj7 chords and major progressions. (As a blues guy, I find major scales and progression difficult. My approach has been: a) to use the Greek modes to get to major=Iolian and Lochrian (very similar, easier for me to understand) from other modes and b) to think in terms of nursery rhymes, as in *Now Ive leaned my ABCs, tell me what you think of me* -- a classc of the major scale. LOL. That great piano tune *Chopsticks* is also a classic of Major proportions! LOL! Now you know my level of playing. LOL

        Then I went back to my copies from the Real Book and noticed how important the Maj7 is to Jazz... Bill Evans is considered one of the true innovators... every other chord is Maj7.

        Have I mentioned that I like disco music? FULL of Maj7 chords.

        I guess you could say: I am in Major7th Heaven!

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