I don't normally attempt to make those guesses... to many variables to factor in, not to mention the things that come outta left field.
If I have to guess, I'll say lower, and possible much lower. The only think I'm very comfortable with predicting that far out is the health of the European banks... no good. And the US banks will go south with them.
I'm not good at predicting either. I just find it interesting that gamblers bet on these things. I hadn't really looked much at this prediction market till today. As you said, too many variables and changes can occur along the road. This is one reason I ignore the macro...I wouldn't have ever bought anything if I'd read the news everyday lol. My belief is that negative news creates buying ops for the long term guys like me.
My only aim is to beat the S&P over the long run. I'm only interested in studying people that have beat the market in a 10 to 30 year period. I have pointed out before that buy and hold isn't dead. My personal hero, Claude Shannon owned just 10 stocks, he bought and held them for 30+ years and generated 28% per annum returns with ZERO turnover. People churn their portfolios too much. http://pennysleuth.com/the-best-investors-never-attempt-to-balance-their-portfolios/
You just have to buy the right stocks lol! Yeah, sounds crazy right? I just think the market is more about emotions and reactions to temporary headlines. I can't deny that it's nice to have some high divy payers like PM in a portfolio, but I know from experience the big moves come from smaller growthier names. willing to ride out volatility.
<<If the world is indeed coming to an end as you presume>>
As I presume?
I'm not quite there yet even though Musk (and now you) like to think so.
All I know is I like PM and oil equities.
And consumer discretionary and most retail I avoid like the plague.
Ditto financial and interest sensitive sectors.
that's keeping it simple in my book.
That and selective shorts for those sectors I don't like.
As to end of world predictions being attributed to me , I really don't know where that comes from as I do still hold out hope for the parts of the world that have had growth over the last decade and it seems to me that that is where growth will likely continue if anywhere.
A theme I've stated many times on this board FWIW.
My bearishness is more towards the OECD and I don't know how often I have to keep repeating that.
Would it be so bad if US society degraded to that of a Banana Republic as long as the stock market held up reasonably well?
<<This latest news story about these "group robberies" is what scares me. Good reason to have a chl.>>
Flash mobs definitely a thing law enforcement may have to deal with more of... but that's not my concern.
More concerning is when more but less organized groups are forced to rove neighborhoods instead... after the easy targets become more fortified and/ or the retail areas become subject to enforced curfews.
The law simply doesn't allow people enough freedom to defend themselves so the criminals will take advantage.
The US govt wants the people to clamor for the govt to protect them and that's exactly what they'll get.
Wins, what to do then? If the world is indeed coming to an end as you presume, then shouldn't we get the beef jerky and shotguns ready(I already have both)? Is gold the only answer? What are you recommending?
I do admit things don't look great by any measure.
This latest news story about these "group robberies" is what scares me. Good reason to have a chl.