I would not make a big bet on the metals yet, dip you toe in.... OK.
The bounce off $26 was a good one, however, the lowest we could have bought here in our markets was $27. That low could hold if the dollar has topped out... not so sure of that. Furthermore, if the world economies continue to get weaker, not good for silver as opposed to gold since silver has a 40% industrial use.
Silver made a fast decent, I would expect a bounce back into the mid to high $30's before resuming the decent lower. I'm still looking for less than $25. If the Euro falls apart... silver will find itself at $20.
Some projections by analyst now are for gold to hit $1100.
Gold and Silver are pretty safe bets here IMO.
Silver has done this before.
Scares the bejesus out of people only to bounce back and make new highs soon after.
Within a year probably see new all time highs.
And the stocks are due to outperform.
Make your shopping lists.
BRF for Brazil small caps something I'll be watching for too.
Consumers in the EMs are addicted and I don't see that changing any time soon so those domestic economies should outperform even if consumption slows in the OECD.
As an aside, the Brazilian banks are not allowed to hold foreign bonds and that only adds to the likelihood of better resilience in their econonmy when other banks around the OECD start to face the reality that their counterparties are highly suspect.
From a lone wolf in the wilderness LOL.
I like your post and stocks , but one and three with say MO are the same ideas. Now once the dollar is nice and strong when this downfall is over you do realize it should then do fairly bad itself , tiny debt and all. Then maybe Pm a better bet. They will ALL do well over next ten years as basic divy players.
This morning the correction was over,lol i hope. Time to buy a position in gold or silver. I have 3 . Physical silver, gdx, slw. I am thinking gdxj at these levels. Thoughts:?thanks
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/King_World_News.html These guys no more about PM's than anyone else.
Ease into positions, I'd be looking at all commodities and oil as well, they are all correlated at this point.
Qe3 is probably on the way and Europe will have to print money next.
I am reading the book Aftershock, by David Wiedemer. In spite of the fact that he is expecting 10% inflation in a couple of years, he also believes that crude oil will fall to less than $25 per bbl.
You want deflation investments and I have 3 ideas...
1. US/multinational dividend producers of staples - KO, PEP, PG, JNJ. Maybe the safest bet of all 3 ideas.
2. Tech - Technology is a sector that normally operates with deflation. The price of computers/gadgets goes down over time naturally so this sector is used to falling prices. Heck, some tech companies already give their products away for free. Plus, Tech will change our world and grow organically. The only thing I don't like is it's so dynamic. That can be good or bad. Apple was basically about to be shut down as worthless 10 years ago, now it's the most valued company in the world.
3. I've been listening to Doc for a long time and agree with the PRO dollar play and that we are hitting recession. I think Tobacco ( very stable demand in good times or bad) and in particular a company like Lorillard with 100% of sales and revenue in dollars works as well. They sell a basic recession proof product, their customers are addicted, and 100% of their revenue is in US dollars with no foreign exposure. Big dividend payer too so you are getting your dollars right back in good times or bad. They did have government risk but that blew over and I've already made big bucks on this stock.
The reason that I have picked airlines with deflation/lower demand is even though they are a commodity business, they can cut supply quickly and benefit from lower input costs.
Hi Doc ! tickers please!? Thanks.