Yes, I agree with you Arwen. I'm usually fully invested . At this point I'm now all in. I did add recently to a few positions to lower my cost basis in them. Overall, where else is there to put your money? Certainly not 10 US treasuries lol.
I think Bernanke knows the only solution is to trash the dollar over time. This should bode well for PM's and stocks and hurt the dollar and US treasuries.
ok, i was there once,,, i held !! But you should of known better to be all in at this stage. It took me years to learn to sit on cash . What i did at the time was re arrange my portfolio when i guessed the lows, and changed lower betta for higher. PM and miners are a good choice at the right time .. the other thing you can do once all in , are options.. do you use them Jaques?
I don't use options but if I did I would sell puts. In general I don't like options.
The main reason I don't trade in out and too much is because of taxes. I'm running a taxable account. There is no doubt in my mind that taxes, especially short term cap gains eat away at performance. I've only had a few short term cap gains. If this were an IRA I might trade and time things.
The math is pretty simple. You could run a portfolio with zero turnover at 12% per annum. To achieve the same effective return using all short term cap gains(taxed at 33%,rates vary and will probably go up given the state of the country), you would have to compound at 18% per annum. I've been beating the market for about 12 years now.....up and downs. My only goal is to beat the S&P over a long time and I mean long......30 years. I don't consider anyone with a track record under 10 years to be of much use.