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Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobra Message Board

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  • jaquecroissant jaquecroissant Oct 4, 2011 12:13 PM Flag

    You guys were right

    Yes, I agree with you Arwen. I'm usually fully invested . At this point I'm now all in. I did add recently to a few positions to lower my cost basis in them. Overall, where else is there to put your money? Certainly not 10 US treasuries lol.

    I think Bernanke knows the only solution is to trash the dollar over time. This should bode well for PM's and stocks and hurt the dollar and US treasuries.

    I'm pretty used to riding roller coasters lol.

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    • ok, i was there once,,, i held !! But you should of known better to be all in at this stage. It took me years to learn to sit on cash .
      What i did at the time was re arrange my portfolio when i guessed the lows, and changed lower betta for higher. PM and miners are a good choice at the right time .. the other thing you can do once all in , are options.. do you use them Jaques?

      • 1 Reply to arwen_imaginary
      • I don't use options but if I did I would sell puts. In general I don't like options.

        The main reason I don't trade in out and too much is because of taxes. I'm running a taxable account. There is no doubt in my mind that taxes, especially short term cap gains eat away at performance. I've only had a few short term cap gains. If this were an IRA I might trade and time things.

        The math is pretty simple. You could run a portfolio with zero turnover at 12% per annum. To achieve the same effective return using all short term cap gains(taxed at 33%,rates vary and will probably go up given the state of the country), you would have to compound at 18% per annum. I've been beating the market for about 12 years now.....up and downs. My only goal is to beat the S&P over a long time and I mean long......30 years. I don't consider anyone with a track record under 10 years to be of much use.

        I always come back to my favorite, Claude Shannon, who compounded at 28% per annum for over 30 years! He never once sold a single position, even during the secular bear market of the 1966-1982. No options, no hedging, no shorts, all long 10 stocks. He let his winners run and boy did they run.

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