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Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobra Message Board

  • jaquecroissant jaquecroissant Oct 12, 2011 7:43 PM Flag

    OK Shorts, bears, and doomers.....now what?

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    • I'm in at 470 on GOOG....my original postion. I have added on dips. I agree, GOOG and AAPL are both the ones to own for the long term.

      I wish I owned BIDU. I missed that one. I've been watching it all along. On a peg basis, it is cheap and thats really how you have to look at these stocks. I think the analysts have done more homework than I can do so I trust them.

    • I was out of GOOG :-(

      But I am going back in!!!

      GOOG IS the backbone of the consumer internet because they are the heart of internet commerce. They put consumers and vendors together through all those searches, and now banner ads, mobile, etc. They know more about you than your mom does. These people know how to process information in massive quantities b/c that is what they do. That is the future of media and of commerce.

      It is quite clear: in 5 years GOOG and AAPL will be 2 of the top 5 biggest companies in the world.

      I bought BIDU for the same reason I am interested in GOOG. Common, the Google of China? Yes, please, may I have some more!

    • Musk, I don't recall if you are a GOOG owner. Looking good after great earnings. I know you said you bought Bidu. Both looking good today.

    • Good reply Musk.

      As for p/e, I think you have to look at a low p/e stock in the context of all the growth factors. Just like Greenblatt has said all along. High ROI, rev's, eps, low debt. If all those are in place and the p/e is low then you are onto something. For me peg works primarily for the simple fact that everyone else is looking at it that way. For example DECK currently has a peg of .93 but the ttm p/e is 29. On a peg basis, it still has room to run. I personally would not be adding at these levels but it is cheaper than AMZN. NFLX got hammered because it was considered "overvalued" and then Hastings pulled a "new coke" on everybody and freaked everyone out. It is now getting cheap on a peg basis. All this applies to stocks that are less cyclical(as you noted)since ttm p/e's can be misleading in the cyclical areas. This is one reason I lean in the secular growth stock direction. I do own "cyclicals" but I look for ones that can whether storms better(0 to no debt, good price history, best of breed).

      As for Apple, I think it was the Steve Jobs issue. It is sad that he is gone but now the picture is clear. I think Apple is still a great bargain right now.

      Yes, I think it's all about putting the odds in our favor, high probability of good outcomes. This leads me to looking at more yearly data(roi, eps,revs). I like to see the yearly higher than the 5 year if possible. I do this only when I'm buying. Once I'm in I keep an eye on that rate of change. Nothing stays hot forever. This tends to give a picture of the entropy that is occurring.

    • I am not a short or doomer, yet I still believe that the market will go down when Greece goes belly up and then perhaps Spain, Ireland and Italy go down the same road. Euro parity to the dollar? Yes but this helps exports...Brazil has huge problems with inflation and PBR has three times the workers that you will find at XON. PBR will post a loss due to exchange rates this quarter. But if you believe the risk on, buy PBR...

      • 2 Replies to palmtreeview
      • Palm, I've been out of PBR for some time now....I did a round trip at 32. I do think that people that bought it at 20 should do ok.....maybe they should sell at 35. I am personally passing on PBR, I agree with you that there are better ops.

        I only post here about the general market which I think is undervalued when compared to 10 US treasuries. That's my main argument. People will be forced to take more risk, therefore stocks are the only place to go just like the guy says.

      • I, for one, am unable to divine the future. The fact is, nobody really knows what is going to happen with much certainty. One minute we are convinced that Greece and the Euro are doomed, the next markets rally.

        Is it surprising that some of the biggest hedge funds are losing money hand over fist - even with the best available minds, systems and data? No.

        In the near term the market will trade on sentiment and policy. Not on valuation and not on fundamentals. One can take a position and gamble. Or one can try to be nimble and go with the flow, up and down. Neither are a great way to make money.

        Cash remains king until the trend is clear. I am about 65% cash. I have maintained my income positions. I have added a couple of core long positions based on attractive valuations: AAPL, BIDU and F. I took 2 trading positions: long UYM - a commodity surrogate, and TNA - 3x small cap (these have been winners over the last 10 days). Have a small hedge, short euro via EUO, currently a losing trade, but the odds of damage to the euro seem hi in any scenario.

        I have my finger on the sell button.

 
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