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Petr Message Board

  • jaquecroissant jaquecroissant Mar 29, 2012 5:49 PM Flag

    Doc is right

    I'm feeling pretty bearish at this point. I think things are actually pretty bad. Reading up here at Zero Hedge. The money printing is the only thing keeping everything afloat. What happens when we need a Qe3? That can't be a good sign. Obama doing nothing to help with gasoline pricing, Obamacare....things are just piling up. Been listening to Faber, Jim Grant, Rickards.

    Risk off for the summer.


    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/mike-krieger-when-central-banking-dies-china-and-oil

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • Can't argue with that RG. Nice to lock in some gains.

      I'm not too good with the oil and NG plays.

    • Just did some more selling on that rally. Sold out of APA EOG & CREE.

      CREE just amounted to profit taking. I had a 15% gain in a few months. I'll look for a place to get back in lower if the market provides the opportunity.

      I've had a change of heart about NG companies. Everybody is actually looking for oil, but keep finding more NG. Not good until there is a market for all this NG. So I let go of EOG & APA for now.

    • Yep...lol....I know what you mean. For me it's about taxes. I wish I were trading in an IRA but I'm running taxable accounts. As much as I hate it, I'm just letting things run. I'm always looking for values out there. If we get a stochastic buy, I will post my picks. Could be awhile.

    • I posted last night, but the post didn't stick and I didn't feel like rewriting.

      Anyway, I sold the open, and I'll be selling more long positions on the next good rally.

      It is very possible that the S&P is forming a head and shoulders top... at least in my view.

      I think there are more reasons to sell than to buy. I still like allot of stocks. But I will have to go small for my holdings and go back to day trading.

      GL everybody.

    • Jaq: What happened to buy and hold? What happened to investing with the data and not just your feelings? What happened to analytical rigor?

      Please, don't tell me you get a job managing money and then decide to go with your gut!

      OK. I have been accused here time and again of flip-flopping, so I know where you are coming from on this. Nobody can say with any degree of certainty what will happen in the next year; uncertainty is high.

      I also think optimism is high (which could be good or bad - take it as you want). The european situation has improved; at minimum, the crisis has been delayed. The US economy is improving. Companies continue to do well. Rates are low. Stocks are still attractive. If the past is any indication, the need for a QE3 and the reality of a QE3 would push the markets higher.

      I hate to say it, but the truth is: Wall Street is doing better than Main Street. Own stocks.

      • 1 Reply to musketeernumberone
      • Musk, I'm not saying don't own stocks. I always think that is the only way to go(for me at least). I'm just saying it's harder to find a lot of great values right now. Maybe this summer we get a correction.

        I'm still a stats guy. I will say it's much harder to pick tops than bottoms. I don't think there is much choice other than to buy stocks when they are cheap. They aren't as cheap as I'd like but of course the market doesn't always act the way I like lol.

        I admit I'm a bit frustrated with the whole political process right now so that isn't helping. I'm a bit fed up with some of the market manipulation that goes on, but what's new lol.

        I'm going to test a relative strength etf approach soon. I need a correction first though(to start it). I'm always testing things to see how they work. Sometimes they work well in the test but I missed the chance in real life.....oh well, there are always opportunities. I'm just looking at lowering volatility.

    • <The money printing is the only thing keeping everything afloat.>

      Yep. It certainly isn't any meaningful change making things better.

      I posted this link on another forum, and unlike a lot of other folks, I think it is pretty clear that the young today are getting shafted.

      What is happening with the college loan business is much what happened with subprime. Basically, you are getting people borrowing and lenders are not having to assess the borrower's ability to re-pay. And just like with subprime, we have a disaster in the making.

      We have $1 trillion in college loans, and $270 billion of the loans are now 30 days delinquent.

      I listed the people who IMO were at fault for stealing so much from the young: college administrators, Sallie Mae, seniors unwilling to compromise on Social Security and Medicare, and politicians.

      In turn, I got a bunch of this Republican drivel about how kids are following Obama's lead by going into so much debt and a bunch of chest beating on personal responsibility.

      So when we had the minimum wage worker get approved for the $750,000 mortgage, we were asked who was to blame, the bank or the worker?

      The Dems picked the bank, and the Republicans picked the borrower, and a shouting match ensued. However, while teams were being drawn up loudly to debate, that bad mortgage was ever so quietly dumped onto the federal debt sheet, and Jacque, you, I, and other taxpayers are going to have to eat it.

      The question shouldn't be who is at fault but how do we fix this so it doesn't happen again.

      Why can't we say that both the bank and borrower are idiots who behaved in a stupid manner?

      And while there was chest beating on the personal responsibility issue, one person posted that no one told these kids to get student loans.

      And I then found this link: http://www.eurasiareview.com/14042011-student-loans-and-for-profit-colleges-theyre-worse-than-you-think-oped/

      These scummy for profit colleges are actually offering student loans to the homeless!

      "Graduation rates for private colleges are about 65 percent, for state schools about 55 percent, and for the for-profit colleges? Twenty-two percent.

      For-profit colleges are netting $24 billion from the government.

      And that student loan money?—the default rate at these for-profits is 43 percent!"

      So here we go again. Loans are being made to people who have almost zero chance of repaying them.

      When this student loan fiasco blows up (and how can it not?), we'll see a repeat of who is to blame like we did with subprime, and you, me, and all the other taxpayers will have to eat the bill.

    • <The money printing is the only thing keeping everything afloat.>

      Yep. It certainly isn't any meaningful change making things better.

      I posted this link on another forum, http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-post-chart-decade, and unlike a lot of other folks, I think it is pretty clear that the young today are getting shafted.

      What is happening with the college loan business is much what happened with subprime. Basically, you are getting people borrowing and lenders are not having to assess the borrower's ability to re-pay. And just like with subprime, we have a disaster in the making.

      We have $1 trillion in college loans, and $270 billion of the loans are now 30 days delinquent.

      I listed the people who IMO were at fault for stealing so much from the young: college administrators, Sallie Mae, seniors unwilling to compromise on Social Security and Medicare, and politicians.

      In turn, I got a bunch of this Republican drivel about how kids are following Obama's lead by going into so much debt and a bunch of chest beating on personal responsibility.

      So when we had the minimum wage worker get approved for the $750,000 mortgage, we were asked who was to blame, the bank or the worker?

      The Dems picked the bank, and the Republicans picked the borrower, and a shouting match ensued. However, while teams were being drawn up loudly to debate, that bad mortgage was ever so quietly dumped onto the federal debt sheet, and Jacque, you, I, and other taxpayers are going to have to eat it.

      The question shouldn't be who is at fault but how do we fix this so it doesn't happen again.

      Why can't we say that both the bank and borrower are idiots who behaved in a stupid manner?

      And while there was chest beating on the personal responsibility issue, one person posted that no one told these kids to get student loans.

      And I then found this link: http://www.eurasiareview.com/14042011-student-loans-and-for-profit-colleges-theyre-worse-than-you-think-oped/

      These scummy for profit colleges are actually offering student loans to the homeless!

      "Graduation rates for private colleges are about 65 percent, for state schools about 55 percent, and for the for-profit colleges? Twenty-two percent.

      For-profit colleges are netting $24 billion from the government.

      And that student loan money?—the default rate at these for-profits is 43 percent!"

      So here we go again. Loans are being made to people who have almost zero chance of repaying them.

      When this student loan fiasco blows up (and how can it not?), we'll see a repeat of who is to blame like we did with subprime, and you, me, and all the other taxpayers will have to eat the bill.

 
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