Don't let anyone tell you there isn't enough oil or that it will cost too much to extract it, etc. WE have plenty of oil.
"Governments don’t care about the truth or the facts and are good at creating crisis after crisis, so that they can be your friend and be the only one to solve the problem, that is, by taking control, taking your rights, enacting more laws, forming more committees out of their cousins, and generally living like Kings off of years of perceived crisis. Oh yeah, and they can take over whole countries if they need to and the gullible public is behind them on an invasion, and they can get enough young people to fight their special-interest wars for them."
His forecasts are a joke.
<<The oil production forecasts that have been truly erroneous are those of the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), the International Energy Agency (IEA), and Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA). All of these organizations prepare estimates that are consistently biased high, as indicated by the analysis EIA forecasts by researchers at Penn State University, and by this analysis of CERA forecasts by Dr. Euan Mearns.>>
<<NOTHING has changed except for the fact that we now have EVEN MORE OIL lol! >>
Shale oil from keragen in Utah, Wyoming, and CO don't count as oil reserves because we get no production from them and probably never will.(this is not oil)
So you think the Bakken, Eagleford and a handful of other mostly NG prone basins going to do it?
Be specific or you are just blowing hot air.
Bakken likely the best of these unconventional oil resources (by far) and it will peak at something close to maybe 1 million b/d within 3 years followed by a decline to about half that within another 5 or 6 and maybe a quarter within 10.
(So maybe 250,000 b/d from the Bakken in 2025 which is less than now)
Eagleford maybe a distant second and might do well to peak at something close to 300,000 b/d since it's more a NG and NGL prone play (which is not oil) and not much use to refineries.
After that we have Tuscaloosa and Collingwood which is early days to say but not likely to be as good as the Bakken so maybe 200,000 b/d(?) from each at their peaks.
Most everything else i.e. Marcellus, Haynesville, Utica are mainly NG plays with some NGL's.
So from all the above (collectively) we might get something like ~2-2.5 million b/d at peak followed by a decline to half that within ~5 years.
So where is the oil going to come from if the US is to be oil independent at current levels of consumption?
You have some special knowledge about other unknown plays that no one else has?
NG but more importantly coal are the only hydrocarbon resources that can carry the US and its energy needs for the LT but like all resources, the industry will find that a lot will have to be left behind for the simple reason that they will simply be uneconomic to produce.
And the economics are likely to get worse because of increased regulation.
But don't take my word for it, watch the growth trend slow down dramatically in the Bakken and for it to peak within the next 3 years or so.... followed by the inevitable decline and use that as your model.
Aside from that, the US has Alaska and the deeper waters of the GOM and these will never be a source of cheap oil.
Any facts you might have in terms of potential peak flows from any of these plays or others, I'm all ears.
Keep in mind, if my take is anything close to accurate, I only see a total INCREMENTAL increase in daily flows of 1.5-2 million b/d at peak from all these plays put together because we already have production from the Bakken and Eagleford!!
And these flows are hardly what you would call a stable foundation of output to build on because of the inherent decline rates with this type of production.
To be clear, in order for the Bakken to double it's output, the number of rigs (including skilled crews, fracking equip, water hauling capability, water availability, housing etc) would have to nearly double from current levels.(maybe an increase of ~75% needed)
Do you have any idea what the constraints are with these types of resources in North Dakota are already?
Increasiong oil production is not as easily scalable as adding 25% growth to an iPad production line!!
“And that decline may well come not from a scarcity of resources but from greater efficiency, which will slacken global demand”
That’s key. We will never reach Peak Technology (ask the Apple guys).
ps …also, we are talking centuries here. Population control is reachable.
More...(and yes I know it's from a conspriracy theorist)
Now I'll use a mainstream source. Even Daniel Yergin thinks it's a myth.
<In this view, the world has decades of further growth in production before flattening out into a plateau -- perhaps sometime around midcentury -- at which time a more gradual decline will begin. And that decline may well come not from a scarcity of resources but from greater efficiency, which will slacken global demand.>
<Yergin then spends a good amount of the essay telling the tale of a geologist named Hubbert who immortalized the idea of peak oil. The story is worth reading if for no other reason than understanding the arguments and language of "peak oilers" who may try to influence you.>
http://www.zacks.com/commentary/18921/Peak+Oil%3A+Just+a+Myth%3F I would consider Zacks a mainstream source.
Wins, the point of posting that piece from 2004 is to show that we are NOW(2012) hearing the same kinds of stories. NOTHING has changed except for the fact that we now have EVEN MORE OIL lol! Five years from now we will hear the same kind of thing. Guaranteed.
You'll see it raining $10 iPads before you see cheap oil again.
Everything in plentiful supply??
There'll be fiat coming out your ears and hardly no oil to be had for the masses with that line of thinking in the years to come.
No need to worry about conservation or nuthin eh?
Don't worry be happy, the SPR has lots of oil and Obama and the Bernanke have it all under control!!
Of course, it is a myth, Jacques. Name one substance that we have "run out" of in the last 100 years.
The job of government is to make sure these new technologies are safe and then get the heck out of the way. The scare levels on fracking with natural gas are through the roof. Every time I read about some new technology, I read about environmentalists "concern", and I want to throw up.
Usually it's not the new stuff that is the problem. It's the old stuff that is the problem, and we get careless assuming it is safe. For all the talk about fracking, it is good old fashioned oil spills like with the Exxon Valdez and in the Gulf that have been the large scale disasters.
Take at look at this chart: http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Oil-Pipelines-Criss-Cross-the-United-States-Why-the-Fuss-Over-Keystone-XL.html
Now tell me why does Nebraska have to be concerned with an oil pipeline running through its state?
The citizens in Texas, Ohio, Oklahoma, and Louisana are far more at risk with their drinking water than Nebraska.
And shouldn't the more modern pipelines be LESS likely to spill oil?
U.S. oil and gas production has been up every year for the last nine years. It is amazing how higher prices increase supply.
The law of supply and demand trumps all. What we have/had with oil is a bunch of egg head academics with a bunch of worthless degrees touting a new paradigm, peak oil and inelastic demand. What hogwash!!
The cure for higher oil prices is higher oil prices as it increases supply and cuts demand.
The real problem with oil are governments around the world keep artificially pumping up or down the price (oil is too high in Europe and too low in Saudi Arabia and Venezuela).
These fake prices, more than anything else, screw up the oil ecosystem.
"Name one substance that we have "run out" of in the last 100 years."
Answer: Common sense, honesty, fair play.
No such thing as man-made global warming, either.
Too many trying to get rich creating panic telling lies.
Spoken like an economist who knows what he's talking about. I've got a story for you. I was at a museum last year and there was an exhibit on oil and cars etc. In the 1920's, almost 100 years ago they were worried about running out of oil!
All of these liberal academic types need to read the ultimate resource and understand it. All of this planned hysteria and propaganda is an attempt at a power grab.
Doc, Excellent post as usual. You make some great points.
It took me awhile to accept that peak oil was a myth. I admit I bought into it several years back. Thanks to you and the internet and open research sources I now know it is bs.
The whole concern about fracking is absurd. We have been fracking since the 1950's and NOW the environmentalists get upset?
You had pointed out a huge oil find in Nigeria(I believe)not too long ago. The planet is swimming in oil and nat gas. Oil should be MUCH cheaper than it is.
<The cure for higher oil prices is higher oil prices as it increases supply and cuts demand.> Great point!
$16 oil from the Bakken?
The Bakken with it's estimated ~4 billion barrels of recoverable oil is the equivalent of less than 6 months worth of US consumption.
And that's only if all that oil is recoverable.
The enviro's and economics might not allow for what is technically recoverable to necessarily be produced.
The world needs to find a few new Saudi Arabias to keep the tanks full over the next 20 yrs or so.
Any idea how many more Bakken equivalents we'll need?
Or how many more skilled people there will be needed to work in all these new Bakkens?
If oil ain't gushing at 80+ bbl, good luck seeing it happen at $16/bbl.