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Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras Message Board

  • jaquecroissant jaquecroissant Apr 11, 2012 11:16 PM Flag

    Don't be too bearish

    OK, I'm siding with Laszlo. I'm just not a bear by nature lol. I've tried to be but I'm not.

    I've posted the political stuff in the past(dems vs republicans and market performance). It doesn't matter who get's elected. The market has moved forward. History shows it doesn't matter. It's worth it just to see this gal talking stocks!

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    • hey musk... gimme some time to get back with ya on that question.
      I just wrote a helluva reply that got lost in cyberspace.... Uuurrrgh !


    • RG: What is the case for $6/shr NOK?

      speculative (OK - possible takeover,new phone a big hit...)


    • Good post... Thnx.

      Buy QCOM...they are everywhere.

    • AAPL is clicking on all cylinders, and the share price will likely increase.
      However, I'm looking at RIMM thinking they have major issues. Samsung seems to be very strong ... and for a good reason. No doubt the leader in Android based phones.

      What I'm looking at with NOK is that much of the bad news is already priced in. I like the looks of the Windows based system, and I like the Lumina 900.. I was impressed also.

      I'm still looking for the low price leader in the smart phone market to the Latin American countries to emerge. I don't think AAPL Iphone will be this low price leader, and this is where I'm expecting NOK to gain allot of sales over the next months and years as the price of smart phones breaks the $100 barrier.

      NOK share price may well see $2... I dunno.
      However, at that point the company will be an easy takeover target... with plenty of suitors. At this point, the company is worth a minimum of $6 per share.

    • <It won't run away anytime soon, in fact... likely the share price will fumble around the $4 range give or take for at least a few weeks if not longer. Plenty of time to get in long.>

      Amen, RG. I looked at NOK's numbers and I didn't bite. I agree with you in that it's got a long time before it turns around. There is no reason to rush in.

      My main point though is that RIMM is doing nothing while NOK is showing signs of a turnaround, and APPL is falling behind. RIMM has gone from having the most advanced and coolest phones five years ago to being dinosaurs now.

      APPL for now has snob appeal though and a reputation of being cool, but a lot of its fanboys aren't that thrilled with the new advances. Someone who bought the Iphone 4 and sold me his Iphone 3 said the phones were much the same even as Iphone4 sales took off.

      There was a good article about this here,
      "A great example of tech snobbery in action were the negative reactions to the Nokia Lumia 900. Of course it was important to point out that the Windows Phone doesn’t have as many apps as Android or the iPhone. Or the highest-resolution screen. But some reviewers lost sight of the value and overall user experience this phone delivers for just $99. It’s one of a few handsets I tested in the past year I didn’t want to give back after the evaluation was over."

      I know what Musk is saying about Apple waiting for others to dive in and screw up new features, and Apple waits until it really works, and then they do it right. 4G wasted too much battery life, so Apple didn't dive in. As the article said, the highly advanced Samsung phone has a battery that dies by lunchtime. That is something Apple wouldn't do.

      However, that wasn't true of storing music in the cloud, and Apple was dead last. The music experience on the Iphone just flat out sucks. Apple wants you to pay 99 cents or so per song.

      I have uploaded and stored 3000 songs in the cloud with google music. Unlike Icloud or Amazon, the google service is free. I can access this with an Android phone and for a $1.99 program, I can do the same with the Windows 7 phone. With the Iphone, outside of using a browser, you are out of luck. Apple just hates Google, and in this case, they are getting in the way of the user experience.

      I also plopped down the $9.99 per month for the zune pass which is pretty cool. It's not as easy to operate as it should be, but you get access to millions of songs. Again, Apple has nothing like this.

      And the article rightly pointed out the Kindle Fire is cool too. Sure, it is not the best design, has the clunky Android interface, and it isn't great for web browsing, but for watching video or playing games on a plane, I prefer it to the Ipad.

      Windows 8 so far has gotten good reviews, and I think people will like the OS if they try it. While there is competition for the Iphone, outside of a little competition by the Kindle Fire, the Ipad has a virtual monopoly. I think that changes with Windows 8 tablets.

      Apple is probably safe for the next 18 months. It may go down with the overall market, but I don't see sales slacking off. But unless they come up with a new game changer, I think Apple will be down by at least 50% in the next two to three years.

    • I was worried about GOOG. After hours it's playing around in the +1.50% range. Tommorrow, who knows. At least they had a decent qtr.....last qtr wasn't much fun lol.

      It's interesting the, analysts have the 5yr project growth rate at 17.68% but my work gives it about 13.64% as of yesterday. I'll redo it and see if I get much of a change. I'm still a holder even though it's been dead money for awhile.

    • I bought a starter position of some shares @ 4.06

      It won't run away anytime soon, in fact... likely the share price will fumble around the $4 range give or take for at least a few weeks if not longer.
      Plenty of time to get in long. Selling puts is just another way to place in bet in what might be a tough market for most other stocks.

      Nice move by the broad markets today. However, heavy volume Tuesday to the downside, with much lighter volume yesterday and today to the upside. I really can not see the equity markets moving up to new highs at this point in time.
      I'll look again to sell my long positions tomorrow into any strength. Time to lighten up some more.

      BTW - I do like GOOG long term, but that does not mean it won't get cheaper in the short term.

    • Those puts may very well be the best way to go long.

      My dad has a Nokia track phone. It's Wal-Marts phone. He likes it since he doesn't use a phone much.

    • Selling the April or May $4 puts seems like a reasonable way to go if your interested in going long.

    • Interestingly enough... Nokia still makes some of the best cell phones in the world ... and has a huge following.

      If NOK can only make a good smart phone... I think the stock could have a huge turn around. Doc's testimonial just might be an indication that the needed smart phone from NOK has arrived.

      Cash per share is $4 per share, book value is $4.

      The stock hardly would seem to be a big risk here. It will take some time, but I can see the company turning around. The only hardware the company makes is cell phones, and the revenues are 40% of AAPL total revenues.
      Yesterdays volume may have represented a capitulation day for NOK.

      Hang in there arwen

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