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Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras Message Board

  • jaquecroissant jaquecroissant Apr 17, 2012 10:04 AM Flag

    Nokia vs. Apple

    OK guys, Here is a quick look at some basic stats I look at. I haven't included the really short term numbers.

    Sorry this looks so messy. I did it on the quick. First numbers are NOK, second row is Apple.

    Nokia Apple
    EPS 5yr hist -22.05% +64.90%

    cash flow growth 5yr -39.97% +66.03%

    revs yr -1.75% +41.16%

    book value growth 5y +.68% +47.84%
    ROI 5yr +14.24% +27.25%
    ROE 1yr -8.57% +44.35%
    ROI 1yr -5.78% +40.12%
    EPS ttm vs prior ttm -163% +96.04%
    revs ttm vs prior ttm -10.95% +67.59%
    D/C 29.57% 0

    You can look at other metrics in the value department as well. Apple is just cheaper given it's growth. jmho.

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    • You guys can compare AAPL and NOK all day, I just don't think it's a fair comparison.

      If you wanna see who knocked the socks off AAPL share price over the last couple of years look here.

      Speculating ain't all bad... lol

    • You are looking in the rear view mirror, Jacque. Apple has had the greatest five year growth of any company in the history of the market.

      Apple has been down five straight days because rumor has it that Sprint, AT&T, and Verizon are not willing to toss as much subsidy money at the Iphone as they have in the past. Analysts know such a move would hurt Apple's bottom line.

      Also, with the new hotspot feature that is becoming more and more common on phones, Apple's 3G and 4G Ipads are vulnerable. These 3G and 4G receivers cost like $5, but Apple charges $130 for this upgrade.

      With cloud streaming becoming more and more common, there is going to be less and less use for more memory in Iphones and Ipads. That means a lot more 8GB Iphones and 16GB Ipads, the cheapest of all models. A 32 GB microSD card goes for $20 these days, but Apple is charging hundreds for this memory upgrade. So Apple's huge markups on margin are vulnerable to competitors who allow you to upgrade memory on your own for $20 not hundreds and people storing files in the cloud.

      Jacque, there is no way Apple can continue to grow like it did the last five years and no way it can enjoy the margins it has.

      And Nokia is the #2 cell phone maker in the world barely finishing up behind Samsung. This is the first time in 14 years Nokia has not been #1:

      No question that Samsung and Apple have done more cutting edge work in the last five years, but the Nokia Lumia 900 is showing me and much of the world Nokia is due for a comeback.

      Nokia and Samsung are going to start cannibalizing Apple's margins. Unless Apple gets a new hit, they are going down. Just wait.

      • 3 Replies to docjoe999
      • So good at forecasting. You are so right, too many people look at the rear view mirror.

      • Doc, I respectfully disagree... and AAPL is up $30 today...

        What you call the rear-view mirror is enough momentum to carry the company and the stock for another 12-18 months, or more.

        The carriers will offer what consumers want. Period. In any case, as you point out regarding hot-spots, mobile data and telephony are moving to the internet (IP). The New iPad acts as a hot-spot, the iPhone 5 will, too.

        The argument against AAPL is: How can it do any better than it has done over the last 5 years? Therefore, it has to go down.

        Maybe. But with 50% growth and a PE of 17, I think there is plenty of space for error, growth and margin compression, new technology, new products, new competitors, etc.

        Wall Street thought Steve Jobs was an eccentric, at best, and a delusional quack, at worst. Now that he is dead, he is held up as some kind of God without whom the company cannot succeed. How silly.

        AAPL has defied the law of large numbers in everything except the stock price. There, it is still just playing catch-up. This is not JMHO -- this is the conclusion that the numbers support.

        The investment thesis argued on this board for NOK is based on the recent introduction of a single product. That is not what I would call a robust approach.

      • Doc, my argument is that money managers look at recent history as their only guide. When you ignore fundamental analysis such as all the stats I posted, you throw away tons of information. As Musk has pointed out, you end up in the world of speculation rather than investing. You are assuming that Nokia's stats are going to turn around. My approach to investing is to try and be on the side of the growth that is happening now rather than trying to guess what could happen to a company with bad stats. Apple has a tremendous base of users and a fantastic team of innovators. I'm not good at predicting turnarounds. I have tried in the past and I've lost money. Maybe you are better at it than I am. I'm just posting what has worked for me.

    • Good stuff, Jaq.

      RG: I do not see why these basic financial metrics cant honestly be compared to derive the relative performance of these two companies... how else do you compare?

      The only argument for NOK is: It cant get much worse, but it could get a lot better, while how much better can APPL get. Right?

      APPL has a pretty clear trajectory to $1000 in the next year to 18 months (double from mid-February). It is growing both the top- and bottom-lines (conservative WS projections) at 50%, introducing new products and experiencing multiple expansion. What is going to happen to de-rail AAPL in the next 18 months? A black swan? Maybe...

      What is NOKs trajectory? Down. Can it turn around? Who knows...

    • C'mon guys... there is no apples to apples comparison with NOK and AAPL

      That said, I see an easier double from NOK from here.

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