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Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobra Message Board

  • s.eranger@sbcglobal.net s.eranger May 10, 2012 9:52 AM Flag

    docjoe...Ellruss..and the arrogance on this message board..

    This isn't my "first rodeo," as we like to say in Texas.

    I've been investing since 1987. My first investment was 200 shares of Phillips 66 Co, at 11 7\8.

    Over the years I've had some big winners and big losers..can't deny I've made some mistakes.

    What never ceases to amaze me is how on every message board..there appears to be one or two people who know everything about everything.

    This begs the question..If this is the case, why are you on a message board in the first place?

    Let the minions worship you...I'm not completely sold.

    Not by a long-shot.

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    • Hi Eranger .I think you are barking at the wrong tree. I myself am way more arrogant than Doc with much less knowledge ,it's in my nature , and i am not the only one on this board, actually i find all my friends here to be a little arrogant , so what !!!!????.
      Now this is still by far one of the best yahoo boards, please be free to name a better one.
      However, many opinions here are very polarized. If we only had a computer program that could average our opinions i think we could beat any hedge fund, bank or the S%P easy and year after year.... but we usually argue , give our opinions read something and think the other guy is wrong unless on your side... ect.... I think a yearly reunion would outweigh any costs with knowledge shared... if we would actually act on it.....But that would be like getting democrats and republicans to actually agree on something....get the point right ?

    • Doc says:

      <What is more important on the world stage: that the U.S. is importing 13.4% less oil or using 4.3% less gasoline? Is oil used just for gasoline? >

      A tricky question. Neither is the main number. The main question on the demand side is worldwide consumption of energy. Below that but having something of necessary category of its own and really what we're driving at here - worldwide consumption of oil. Gasoline, of course, is only part of the oil picture. When I looked at this number a few months ago trying to cobble together a better understanding of the overall energy picture, it seems like worldwide gasoline was around half of worldwide consumption and 2/3 to 3/4 of US consumption.

      Again, it's a world market for oil with us making up 25%, which makes our gasoline consumption probably somewhere between 15 and 20% of the total. Which means that for every 10% - and 10% is hard - of our gasoline consumption that we abate, we're only diminishing worldwide consumption of oil by 1.5 to 2 %. And you think developing countries won't be willing and able to take that easily off the market?


      <On the demand side, I have covered China and how it is destined to fall and posted links for months if not years.>

      Well, then you should have a link to one of the most coherent of these articles at your disposal. I'd love to read it, though I'm not sure that I can get to it much until next week.



      <On top of that, you are like the old Wins imagining an increase in demand instead of getting off your butt and actually looking at the data.>

      Eventually, you'll have to stop repeating this and dish with the numbers you're handed. 4.8% seems to be real data enough. The China increases for 2010 and 2011 that I posted in the reply to Musk are probably real enough. Yet, these haven't done anything to change my view or support yours.

    • Musk wrote:

      <Onesearch: Sorry to butt in here, but a 4.3% decline in oil consumption is HUGE. One would expect prices to react (decline) more quickly than they have.>

      No, your input is welcome. Another of the names I remember seeing here in 2008. Also, I did drop by a few months back...maybe a year...and one of you guys was living in Brazil and fielding opinions about a good place to live on return to the US. I think one of the strong considerations was Austin. Just throwing that out there for some verification that I'm not that new here as a reader.

      Regarding your point about 4.8% being huge. I understand that all things else being equal that 4.8% drop in U.S. demand could have a big impact. The argument that my view is based on is that China and the rest of the world on the cusp of development will have no trouble soaking that oil up at the rate that we can be expected to drop it, even given current or higher prices. If you look at the gasoline chart that I posted in the thread above, my anecdotally derived estimate of 10% drop in US demand were we to hit 5$ doesn't seem that far off. Meanwhile, though we had a decline in demand of 4.8% last year, China according to the link below, had a rise in demand of 6.3% in 2011 and 12% gain in 2010. That's approximately 18% in 2 years. It was said earlier here, or somewhere, that current US consumpiton is twice Chinese, so their 18% rise in demand would still make up for a drop in US demand of 9%, which, of course, is more than the 4.8% that we found earlier, meaning that China could be expected to easily soak up everything that we're going to drop off in the near future. I understand that China and the US are not the only countries with an input but they probably represent the two most dynamic movers of demand pro and con. So, I don't think the US has the will or inclination to lower its consumption habits enough to shift worldwide demand down going forward to make up for the expected rise in other economies. I'm definitely open to more facts or theses, but given the view of the facts that I currently have to put in my concept, it's hard to see the demand side likely to go another way but somewhat up, given a stable world economy.

      Here's that link about Chinese consumption. I'd defintely love to look at other smartly constructed tables of world demand.

      http://www.forextv.com/forex-news-story/crude-oil-monthly-fundamental-forecast-may-2012

    • Here in the USA I am spotting a bunch of Prius cabs that get about 50mpg and the big old Crown Vics ex police cars that get 18 mpg are retired...This trend for smaller gas sippers is also observed at the dealers. Both GM and Ford now have popular gas sippers...I saw an electric hook up for cars at Home Depot. I suspect we see more electric cars/hybreds and nat gas consumed to generate electricity for the cars on the grid...

    • <This isn't my "first rodeo," as we like to say in Texas.

      I've been investing since 1987.>

      Do you think anybody cares when you are posting on an anonymous message board?

      <My first investment was 200 shares of Phillips 66 Co, at 11 7\8.>

      And your last three have been DOM, PBR, and UNG... all dogs.

      <What never ceases to amaze me is how on every message board..there appears to be one or two people who know everything about everything.>

      I don't know everything about everything. I just know a lot more than you do.

      I have already said in the short term PBR's price is up to the whims of Uncle Ben and the ECB, and I have no clue what they are going to do.

      But I know that if Uncle Ben announces $2 trillion in QE tomorrow and PBR shoots up, there will be a lot of fools proclaiming how smart they are and how dumb I am.

      I don't care. I don't do short term trading. RG and Musk do.

      <If this is the case, why are you on a message board in the first place?>

      In my case, it is to throw out ideas and facts and to see if they are right. Believe it or not, I care more about being right than being popular. Unlike a lot of other people, I would rather be shown I was wrong and make money than show someone up and lose it.

      OTOH, what is your purpose in posting? To me, it is nothing more than whining and finger pointing.

      <Let the minions worship you...I'm not completely sold.>

      Do you think I care about being worshiped or making money? The doc stands for doctor. I can have people worship me for saving their life or writing out morphine scripts. I don't lack in the worship department. Quite frankly, worshiping is a pain as people have high expectations of you. As Hawkeye Pierce of MASH once said, "I didn't come here to be admired. I came here to pull bodies out of a sausage grinder."

      In my case, I think investing is risky, and I want all the facts, information, and viewpoints I can get. Sure if someone is stupid, I am going to tell him so because I want that done to me. If that person cares about making money, he will thank me for correcting him. If he is a two bit amateur, he will let his ego get involved and personally attack me and whine, as you have done, and eventually slink away when they learn that attacking me hasn't made them any richer.

      And this isn't my first rodeo either. Do you know how many immature, sulking, whiny blowhards I have had to deal with over the last five years on this forum? The pattern is the same. These blowhards see someone that other posters respect and try to shoot him down. In their warped mind, they think this forum controls PBR's stock price.

      And what happens to these blowhards? They have ALWAYS lost. The last one was some dame comparing PBR to XOM and me and Musk took her down. Before that, there was some goofball who thought that PBR was a buy until the Olympics/World Cup. He called me a hypocrite and thought PBR was a great value at $35.

      We spur a lot here. Winsabok and I have been arguing for five years, and I have learned from him and he from me. He brings information to back up his views and so do I. We have called each other idiots so many times, many people would think that is our first name, but we have almost always kept it civil enough and focused on investing and making money.

      The fact that you are choosing to whine about someone knowing more than you rather than actually learning from that person tells me all I need to know about you as an investor.

      People who wear their feelings on their sleeve as you do should stick to trading. That has more to do with emotions than facts.

      • 3 Replies to docjoe999
      • s.eranger@sbcglobal.net s.eranger May 11, 2012 6:55 PM Flag

        Dear docjoe,

        Thanks for this response.

        I really don't care what people think on an anonymous message board.

        I see you've been doing some research. Did you pull my tax returns as well. For the record..DOM, UNG and PBR were not my selections, although I did invest in them. Like I said, I've made money and lost money. I can list all my big winners, but it's irrelevant.

        "You know allot more than I do?" That sir, is quite debatable. You might know allot more about PBR, but I wouldn't get carried away.

        I have not attacked you, nor am I whining. I made a statement\observation. Plain and simple.

        "Slink away?" You're quite confused. I've never slinked or backed down from anything in my entire life. You don't even know me.

        The rest of this is rhetoric. I'm glad you've done well. I have no issues with anyone doing well, or being smarter than me.

        No one is trying to shoot you down. You are cocky, and that's fine.

        Clearly..you're having a love affair with yourself.

      • s.eranger@sbcglobal.net s.eranger May 11, 2012 12:17 PM Flag

        I will formulate a response when I have more time.

      • I'm not sure if I've ever posted on this board,but back in the day that PBR peaked out at about 70(2008?), I was lucky enough to get out of my position in the low 60's. My thinking on the stock was probably not a tenth as well founded as many of the people on this board, which I was reading at the time fairly regularly. I think I pulled out of the stock because of an article I read said that it was going to be very expensive to get that oil out of those undersalt oil fields, but I can't say that the intelligence on this board didn't also help some.

        On sort of a whim I came over to check the message board today and I read Doc's answer to the above poster in the other thread and because the following is so contrary to what I've believed to be the truth, I'm hoping for more clarification on a couple of points.

        Here's Doc's quote on peak oil:
        "U.S. oil production is soaring, and demand is falling, and the U.S. is the largest oil market in the world.

        Still, all the oil nuts wants to talk about is China. News flash: the U.S. consumes almost twice as much oil as China does. We are still kind of important when it comes to the world's oil markets.

        Do you know the U.S. is producing 10 year highs in oil and consumption has fallen to 10 year lows?

        The whole peak oil and inelastic demand lines used to justify higher oil prices have proven to be pure b.s. Got it? They are myths."

        Now, there's little doubt in my mind that Doc and many others on this board have read much more than I have on this issue, So, although being human and unlikely to change my mind, I actually do think, based upon the quality of understanding here that there's a reasonable chance that I do have some (or even most) of it wrong. So, worth asking...

        It's hard for me to see elasiticity of US demand for oil being as great as believed here. I can't remember the exact percentage, but most of the oil used in the US goes into automobiles. Changing the mpg of cars takes years. Sure, people may cancel longer trips and some driving when gas prices going up, but I think for the most part it's going to take a pretty high gas price to really do much demand damage. My mental picture of this is that you could take gas all of the way to 5 dollars a gallon and it's not going to affect American consumption by more than 10%. That's just a rough mental picture and I would love a counter point of view. While China ( India, whatever) may consume less than half of the oil that we do the rate at which they are increasing has to be great enough that they'll soak up that 10% pretty quickly. Half the oil used,but increasing at 5% a year would take up that slack of 10% in 4 years. Now, certainly I just pulled these numbers out of a hat to try to explain the picture as I see it. Any of these numbers could be wrong, but they form a concept and I'm hoping that someone can argue the concept without overly picking on the inaccuracy of the numbers themselves.

        It's telling me I'm over 4000 characters. So, supply side on the next post.

    • Mr. Eranger, may I respectfully suggest that you hang around awhile and see who is right and who is is wrong, who contributes analysis that rings true and who submits investment ideas that work. These are so much more important than who is arrogant or not.

      I can handle arrogance when people are right. When they are wrong and arrogant... Ignore! lol

    • As I recall, you informed us plain and simple that you bought this issue on recommendation from your anal-ist... no ?

      That is your biggest mistake. Do your own DD and listen to nobody... including this message board.
      Then you have nobody to blame except yourself.

    • Doc and Ellruss have been correct. You can't deny that. This board has several members with great ideas for trading and investing. PBR looks cheap but it's a value trap. I wouldn't touch it now.....bad fundamentals.

      Trust me, I owned PBR and got out luckily doing only a round trip. Many others lost money.

    • This board is one of the best I have found. Participants also discuss other possible investments, winners and losers. This board save me a ton of money correctly calling for the drop in PBR, identifying loads of the problems the hypesters of the press too lazy to do any real research simply regurgitate what comes out of the rubber chicken lunches they get at the PBR public relations meetings. I see no arrogance here. We've all earned our stripes over the years...

 
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