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Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobra Message Board

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  • s.eranger May 19, 2012 7:40 PM Flag

    Musk, I owe you a beer

    When the market really comes down...say another 750-1000 points, which I think will happen before the election..I have these names on my watch list...

    I have a feeling our portfolios are very different. Most of the stocks I own I've had a pretty good while...DUK, PFE, INTC, EMC, NYB, WM, COV, BAC in the 3's, and some mutual funds which have performed quite well over the years...I'm not looking for the quick kill. I think when the market gets punished a bit more this will present some very nice buying opportunities. I think NG comes back, when I can't say..If I can buy HAL, DVN,BP and the like for .40 on the dollar, I'll do so..ZIXI is a complete speculation, but I think they'll be bought.

    I know the tennis player demi-god laughed about BAC, but I do business with the company and they'll be a $15.00 stock again one of these days. Just because JPM screwed up doesn't EVERY bank SCREWED up.


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    • <But I do business with the company>


      <and they'll be a $15.00 stock again one of these days.>

      Uh, why?

      <Just because JPM screwed up doesn't EVERY bank SCREWED up.>

      Just to clue you in, BAC has $50 trillion in derivatives, JPM has $70 trillion in derivatives, and the derivatives market is not regulated. So no one knows what JPM or BAC is doing.

      With bets that big, there are only a few other parties big enough or willing to take the other side of said bets (counterparties), and a lot of those counterparties are in Europe.

      One fear I have owning DTO is that it is backed by Deutche Bank, and even if I am right with my oil short but DB goes broke, I lose everything.

      So if BAC has a $25 billion bet with HSBC, and it goes under, that is $25 billion wiped off BAC's balance sheet even if BAC makes the right bet.

      The same is true with all the European banks BAC is dealing with. We know Europe is bad, but we don't know how bad it is going to affect us and the American banks. Buying European debt is what sunk MF Global.

      Then there are the all the mortgage lawsuits:

      And how much is BAC going to pay for all these lawsuits? No one knows... well except for you of course... because you do business with BAC.

      BAC is not an investment. It is a gamble. You should take your money and go play in Vegas. At least there you get free drinks.

      • 1 Reply to docjoe999
      • s.eranger May 20, 2012 10:01 AM Flag


        Thanks for the eloquent response.

        Recently, BAC was $10, I don't think another $5 under the right circumstances is too far-fetched. The market is correcting.

        Thanks for the info on the derivatives.

        Thanks for everything.

        The bank isn't going up "because I said so." I'm in very cheap, so to me at this juncture it's a calculated risk.

        Every play in the market comes with risk...if you don't believe this to be the case....never mind.

        Since you have no idea what I do, (unless you've done a background check, which wouldn't surprise me) often working with an organization can allow you to "put your finger on the pulse) of how they might be doing.

    • I agree doc, BAC is a gamble,

      I think pretty much for the same reasons. Reasons mostly related to derivative exposure, the exposure in Europe banking issues, and the US mortgage exposure... let's not even mention the lousy economy.
      Add to that the banks are not making money on loaning money as they did in the past, which is what made them once great investments. Today, the banks need to play the stock market, commodities and derivatives to make money. How do you spell R I S K Y ?
      Banks just seem to wanna gamble now to make money, as in lending money to folks that did not have the means to repay the mortgage loans.

      My tax account owns BAC also, and is also very confident that the company stock will one day soar again.
      I do understand that BAC is too big to fail, I get that. So yes, I do believe that BAC will be backstopped by the government. However, the bank can continue to operate and exist, while shareholders are left holding the bag. Ever heard of GM ?

      No thanks, there are potential stock doubles out there without taking on as much risk.

      BP at $37, AMX at $23.6. AAPL at $535 are all fair bets if you wanna be long. If I felt I had to own a bank, I'd own WFC or USB.
      If ya really wanna gamble... just a bit. I think WPRT is an excellent bet at $23. I expect by 2015 it could be $75-$100.


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