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  • rgneckow rgneckow Mar 11, 2013 11:42 PM Flag

    AAPL ... calling a bottom

    I'm probably early as usual here. But the gap I was looking to fill is filled. Add to that a reversal day today is bullish. I would not count out a retest of the recent low... a small position today for me at $531.
    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=AAPL&t=2y&l=on&z=l&q=b&p=&a=&c=
    Anybody ?

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    • I was wrong... early as usual. Glad i didn't hold it long. I'm still down on AAPL as it has been a loosing trade for me.
      Looks like the only way to make money in AAPL is sell naked calls... or be short.. I won't do either. I do have a hard time believing that SJ was the one and only force behind the success.... time will tell.

    • now that was an easy 5% trade i just made.
      if 422 i,ll buy again

    • I think you should wait till it starts gapping up rather than down. It's a #$%$ to wake up to instant losses.

    • I actually went to the mall this weekend and checked out the microsoft surface vs the ipad. Bear in mind that, at the moment, I have several times the amount of Apple stock that I have of Msft. So, I don't think I have much prejudice either way, but financially i'm more aligned with Apple. Also bear in mind that I didn't actually use either instrument. I just sort of looked at the two, scrolled and punched a few buttons.

      In my opinion, if you strip away all of the hype and inertia associated with owning an ipad, the Surface kind of blows it away in the look and feel department. To the extent that I was actually quite surprised.

      Financially, though, both stocks are trading in similar ground when it comes to price to free cash flow. Both are probably bargains, though with Apple you probably still have a little more consumer momentum, countered with more aggressive competition and a smaller moat.

      So, it's take your pick, imo. One really interesting fact from a both a financial angle and otherwise is that at their current prices and free cash flows, Apple could literally buy Msft .....WITH CASH ......in probably about another year. Of course, were this type of thing to actually become an indicated possibility, the price for MSFT would probably be up about 50%.

      And justice would never let this happen, at present. Nor would Ballmer likely ever give in to any sort of combination, at present. But fear of google replacing Apple as the big monster would make me (if I were Apple) want to hang onto my cash hoard for the possibility of just such a combination were things to go south badly for the two of them in the next year or two. Share buyback at these prices for both companies should be the only reason to release the cash.

    • Hopefully you mean a small position for u at 431.00 not 531.00???

      Sentiment: Hold

      • 1 Reply to jstck3
      • You are absolutely right..... thanks for pointing that out.... $431

        I would not rule out a lower price on AAPL. As I said, I do not see yet a definitive bottom technically. I do play gapfills, but stronger support might not come in till around the $400 level. The stock is broken, not the company. Once a bottom is formed, the stock could easily see $500.
        I think the risk reward in this area is good. That said, I doubt traders will be rewarded until the next quarter bear out a fundamental argument for the share price.

        I may well sell the weekly OTM call & OTM putt until the direction becomes more clear.

    • You are a little early...try 382.00 as a bottom...keep this for your records...as i will be back to remind you.

      • 1 Reply to jstck3
      • Nice call there jstck3, a low of $385.10 on Friday, are you buying yet ?

        S&P is 1555, if the broad markets pulled back 5-20%. What would AAPL do, go sideways, go lower or go contrary to the market ?

        That will likely be determined by the next earnings report(next week?), and guidance.
        I'm not making any bets, but I do play the AAPL trading game on some days. I scalped more than $8 share on AAPL on Friday, but I've had loosing days as well.

        GL

 
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