I think it's correct. There is no recovery absent a sale of this company. Of course, they won't do it because the current BOD chose Hable, because he doesn't own enough shares to make it worthwhile for himself, and because no one will like the price offered ($5).
It is difficult to argue with his analysis as far as it goes. What I don't see is any insight in to the "real world" competitive operation of this company. There are those (customers) who love to hate Alcon due to the business tactics they use with their bundling, "free" equipment and general hold on the vitrectomy market. Alcon bought the fiber optic business and they bought the instrument business. Their tactics blend with the US market practices very well, but do not fit well in the growing foreign markets where cost per procedure is primary. Their pack prices are (or historically have been) very high. The military market seems to have been left out of the discussion. They can not accept the Alcon business stategy that is forced on the hospitals. Many foreign hospitals would not be targeted by Alcon as their disposables are reused (against directions of course).
I can see the VersaVit filling a much needed competitive niche in all of these areas.
DORC seems to be surviving Alcon's business practices, the last I knew about.
Vitrectomies are becoming more and more prevalent around the world. It is a growing business.
Although I would like to see some of the "old guard" be less influential, I do think SURG can survive well and come out a better company.
Allergan would be a better suitor in my opinion.
Here's my calculation on value: the cash plus the PV of deferred rev is probably in the $22 million range. So, a "true" EV is probably around $58 mil. The business ex VersaVIT are worth something, say $20 million. SURG patents and R&D have some value as well. Let's say $10 million. So, boils down to value of VersaVIT. Is it worth more than $28 million to someone with better distribution, global reach , etc.
I think the market fear is that they won't sell assets or the entire company, that the existing businesses will continue to run down to zero, and that VersaVIT will be an underperformed due to Alcon business structural advantages and business practices.