OK, I give you creedence for all you wrote. DCLK
is good for a few years anyhow, I'll take that.
Hell, in 10 years I'll be pushing 60 and won't need as
much clothes as I do now anyhow, right? Sorry for the
spelling, too early to proofread and try to get this itty
bitty thing between the letters to fix....Debbie
I DO understand that the Internet is "yet a
baby", as you put it (not a difficult concept to grasp,
eh?) That, in fact, is my point. We do not yet know
whether DCLK is (to use your analogy) Ford or Edsel. The
liklihood is that there will be soooo much competition in
this space (think barriers to entry in this space vs.
the auto manufacturing world) that no one company
will get to the $75 BILLION mark.
billion...okay. $20 billion...maybe but not f***ing likely. $75
to $100 billion?...ummm, no. Not a chance. The
reasons why this is so? We are talking about an education
on 1) the dynamics of a client based rep firm and/or
2) an education as to how difficult of an
engineering task it would be to build a better adserving
moustrap than DCLK's "dart". Didja know they have
re-developed DART in the past 8 months cuz it wasn't scalable?
Their whole current solution took them less than 8
months to build. Again, not a big
Be it TV, Radio, Cable or the INeternet...rep
firms (called ad networks in the Internet space) are
only as good (read "long-term") as their relationships
with the publishers or content providers. Since no
company (DCLK, TFSM...doesn't matter) can sustain an
unlimited number of human relationships in a meaningful
way, none can have a significant long term advantage
over the other.
Will DCLK be the leader in 10
years? Maybe. But there is nothing in the make-up of
DCLK today that even comes close to guaranteeing that
they will be. Parity over several companies is more
DCLK's sales acument is marginal
at best. Like most 'net ad sales operations, they
are not competitive in terms of sales talent to the
offline world. As those "offline" sales and sales
managment folk come "online" (and they are in droves!) the
competitive landscape will change...and change...and change.
A large number of these individuals will have the
ability to change fortunes.
technology is just code...it ain't magic. Their is nothing
there to entrench their customers long term. It's an
HTML tag that takes 5 minutes to swap out and a user
interface that takes 5 hours to master. The customers are
very price sensitive. Given an equal (or better)
technolgy solution, which is REALLY not a difficult thing
to achieve- in spite of the fact that no one thus
for HAS achieved it- their customers will
We are talking a couple of years before this is an
issue though. Kingdoms will be won and lost in that
period of time. Short term (I mean short-term in the
real world, nto the 'net investing world...we are
talking a couple of years here) DCLK is a solid
this where those who can buy on the dips, will
reap the rewards. Unfortunately, fear plays a role in
sentiment. I'm rationalizing it by saying regardless of what
the reports show, it is more than not that we will
have a 25% basis point rate hike. However, this
morning, CNBC said more like a 50% hike is priced in to
I believe that one shouldn't be upset
for Greenspan taking back something that didn't
belong to us in the first place. In OCT, the first cut
we were relieved, the second euphoric, however, the
third we were surprised, because it wasn't counted on.
So, he is taking back something that didn't belong to
Look at csco vs. lucent. They are both
successful. I think as more players get into the internet
advertising world, doubleclick will emerge as the long term
winner through its growing dclk network. We're just
scratching the surface here. This market potential is huge.
The way ads are delivered will change but the
delivery person will still be doubleclick. Doubleclick is
innovative, aggressive and already worldwide. Even the cfo
says they will be serving 88 BILLION adds a month by
Scale this up on a continuing basis as
more and more internet users emerge, and the
possibility is there. Good luck. It won't be straight up but
neither was the ride on AOL.