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DoubleClick, Inc. (DCLK) Message Board

  • calmcom calmcom Oct 17, 2000 11:33 PM Flag

    It's a conspiracy against Greenspan!!!!

    A Theory:
    The fortune 1,000 got together and
    had a chat. I think it was in Montana, but that's not

    You see, they are getting really tired of Greeny's
    rising interest rates. Oh yea, you may point out that
    the traditional measurement of T-bills, notes, and
    bonds haven't had much of a rise in interest rates. Ah,
    but let us not forget that the price of government
    securities has been supported by a shrinking supply. Indeed,
    corporate borrowing rates have risen

    So, the fortune 1,000 decided to play Greeny's game.
    They decided that they needed to throw the equity
    market into a tail spin so that Greeny might worry and
    stop raising interest rates.

    Ah! an idea arose
    that while the conspiring fortune 1,000 companies were
    about to report good 3Q earnings, they should warn the
    market of an impending slowdown, even with no slowdown
    in site, and cause the market to tank on a conspired

    So, now a dilema arose; who should warn? If everyone
    warned the effect would be too strong. It was determined
    that about 30% of them should warn and two industries
    should take the lead.

    Well, since the point is to
    influence interest rates by lowering equity prices, it was
    decided that those who would most benefit from a strong
    bond market and lower equity prices should warn and
    sacrifice their equity price in the short term in order to
    gain better interest rates. Indeed Telecoms and VC's
    Must Warn!

    You see, telecoms love debt
    financing and would benefit greatly by reduced interest
    rates. So, it was decided that telecoms must warn, and
    warn they did.

    Who else would benefit the most?
    Venture capital firms of course! You see, while many
    point out that a poor IPO market is bad for VC's, they
    miss a VERY important factors. VC's don't just sell
    companies, they buy into companies. And just like everybody
    else, they like to buy low and sell high. Well, over
    the last 2 years they have been selling high and they
    now need to replenish their inventories and have
    billion$$$ on the sideline that they need to invest. Well, a
    tanked market drives down the investment price for VC's
    dramatically and they will benefit greatly.

    So, there
    you have it. The fortune 1,000 got together and
    decided to play ball. Telecoms and VC's were the fall
    guys, but will be some of the biggest beneficiaries in
    the longer term.

    Hey, it could have happened.