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CHİNA AGRİTECH AŞ Message Board

  • chipper4747 chipper4747 Dec 28, 2010 10:43 AM Flag

    Lift off

    Glad to see CAGC moving in the direction many of us were looking for. 3/5 analysis confirms this morning a buy signal, as RSI is now > 50, MACD has a detectable rising histogram, along with fast line increasingly above slow line...all adds up to a BUY signal. Even the volume, at 100K shares after 75 minutes of trading, is confirming the signal. For those of you who want to make some money going long CAGC, now would be a good time to invest.

    (Given the number of puts that I sold yesterday, I will hold on to my position (even the few short Jan 11 and short Jan 12 calls) to see how rapidly this develops.)

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    • "who's mary?"

      Mary is marylhyatt on the FCX board. She's on vacation at the moment, and is being sorely missed by a lot of folks there.

    • ....who's mary? is that the same mary4money? m4m posted for a time on stockfetcher. i have a great m4m combo filter.

    • Thanks for explaining DRYS. Bad news can come any time.

      So what tipped you off that CAGC was a buy today around 10:30?

    • Thanks. I appreciate your sharing your ideas. I realize nothing is 100%.

    • OK then, I miss WIZ OUT after a bellowing like that ! Simple , go CAGC !

    • "I traded 2 times DRYS so far for the last 3 months and made 15% average both times. You try again based on what you see and you fail. The key is that you have to be quick, especially on changes on the fundamentals."

      Tennistocks---
      Don't be dismayed by Lasota's post lambasting you as an ignorant trader. Anytime one of his picks goes south, the FIRST thing he does is attack the poster (not himself) who dares to question his wisdom.

      I was looking for the above paragraph in his post to you...the one that proves he's smarter than your average trading crowd. The one that diminishes his loss on DRYS, the one that proves that YOU ARE AN IDIOT for following his advice and not knowing to sell at the opening bell, but the post still proves he knows how to trade THIS stock. And yes, only a 3% loss this time, if you believe him (I don't)--but he made gobs of money the other times-those times that we haven't seen proof of.

      Suffice it to say that Lasota continues to be a very good leading indicator for CAGC--the day after he leaves the board, the stock takes off. Coincidence? Of course! But hard to ignore. And his prediction for $14 is based on nothing but hot air. No analysis whatsoever. Why $14? Why not $13? Why not $15? Why not $33-35? (yes, I seem to recall THAT prediction of his only a few short weeks ago).

      We all knew he just wouldn't go away and display his talents for all to see on Stocktwits. Once again: be advised not to take Lasota's advice on CAGC, in particular. He has demonstrated his ignorance all too often on this stock.

    • "This 3/5 BS is a guaranteed way to lose money."

      Wow, this is the first time the "King" has discussed 3/5 analysis, and only now, when it shows its true colors (issuing a BUY signal at the right time) does he dismiss it as "BS". Why did he wait till now to claim it was BS? I had posted at least 10 posts on it before today. Answer: it proved him wrong, yet again. And anything that makes Lasota look bad just ruins his day. And so, he comes out with his usual angry post to try and discredit something that works quite well.

      Shall I provide a list of stocks where I've used 3/5 analysis to make lots of money? I've not done that for fear of sounding like Lasota himself (the unending braggart). I don't need to prove that 3/5 works to others. People on the FCX board swear by it (thanks to the teachings of Mary). And now that I've become familiar with it, I use it more and more, particularly with high volume stocks.

      Anything that doesn't have "Made by Lasota" stamped on the bottom isn't worth buying, according to our "CAGC is a sure money loser" guru.

      I will continue to throw his own quotes in his face because, quite frankly, he deserves to be reminded of them---to show people his view of CAGC is and has been one laugh factory. For the unending braggart, his reward: to be forever reminded of his pathetic quotes about CAGC. That will show people just how good he is.

    • "What signal do you recommend for exiting?

      I have also read Mary's post on the FCX board and have learned some of her system. But she is a day-trader (which I am not) and she always sells before the end of the day. Also, she likes stocks with much larger volume."

      True, she is a day trader and always ends the day in cash. One good reason for doing this with FCX is that the stock is often a "gapper", opening significantly higher or lower than the previous day's close. That can cause significant losses if you're on the wrong side.

      And it's also true that 3/5 analysis is better used with stocks with higher volumes. The indicators are therefore more "smooth" and more easily interpreted. CAGC is not a stock with that kind of volume.

      When I started posting 3/5 analysis for CAGC, it was (and still is) an experiment to see how well 3/5 performs for this low-volume stock. So far, so good (from my view). It remains to be seen how well it performs in the next few days ...and whether it continues to flash a BUY signal when it should.

      Now, to answer your question about exiting the stock: As you know, Mary uses her 60-minute, 15-minute, and 5-minute charts to track the internal condition of the stock (for example, whether it's in a state of working off an overbought condition or whether the stock has peaked and is headed downward). This, in turn, helps her determine when to sell her position. Also, keep in mind that she NEVER uses 3/5 to establish a short position.

      So what do I use to exit? I watch the performance of two indicators in particular: 1) MA3>MA5 and 2)MACD fast line above the slow line with a rising or flat histogram. If both of these 2 go bad, it's time to exit. Yet, there are times when (as with FCX), the daily MA3 can go below MA5, then bounce back above it and keep the BUY signal in place. Between the two, MACD is more important the MA3>MA5. That's just been my experience so far. So you have to decide whether to exit if MACD is holding up OK but MA3 has turned lower than MA5. In this case:

      One other indicator to help you decide is the WEEKLY 3/5 chart, and see what it's telling you. The weekly can be flashing BUY while the daily does not. The weekly chart smooths out the burps in the daily chart. I didn't want to mention the weekly chart till now because I'd be throwing yet more data at people; yet the weekly 3/5 chart is a good backup indicator. So when MACD turns down, and the fast line dips below the slow line, I'd say it's time to exit. If MA3<MA5 but everything else is ok, I'd let it run for another day to see if that indicator can reverse itself (and use the weekly to tell me if I should bother doing that).

      So, short answer: if MA3<MA5 and MACD turns 'wrong', then definitely exit. Or, if just MACD turns 'wrong' or just MA3<MA5, check the weekly chart to help find the answer. MACD going wrong is the one indicator that 'scares' me the most.

      To put on a short sell, you would need all 5 indicators pointing the 'other way'.

      I hope this helps. Good luck.

    • Listen, you should know the basics before you execute one trade.
      DRYS was THE trade to be on. news comes in (they announced overnight the purchase of tankers) and things change. You have to understand that before you do anything else. THINGS CHANGE fundamentally and the trader moves quick.

      In the morning Monday, DRYS was supposed to explode. Instead, while the market is up you see DRYS immediately on big volumes moving lower below a VERY CRITICAL level that it should have never done under normal circumstances i.e. its 20-Day.

      You then know the trade is off. Smart and experienced traders take off immediately. The morons sit around on the forums all day long wishing the stock will bounce and turn to green. Things don't work that way. Wishing will not help.

      That day I got a 3% quick loss and took off. It's over. Done. You move on. Other than that I have no other explanation. When you enter a trade always put a mark on level to watch and when they are breached take a look at what's happening and do accordingly.

      I traded 2 times DRYS so far for the last 3 months and made 15% average both times. You try again based on what you see and you fail. The key is that you have to be quick, especially on changes on the fundamentals.

      I'm looking to reenter DRYS at $5.20 by the way for a bounce. That's its 50-Day.

    • This 3/5 BS is a guaranteed way to lose money. Try to backtest and you'll see it gets you nowhere. To begin with you'll get tossed around a lot and that's the only given. I just does not work. Stocks are volatile and there are other smart professional strategies out there set to take advantage of idiots who follow the 3/5 and the like(at least for a while they follow them because they eventually go broke if they keep doing it).

      Pay attention to SOL as well since you like this type of stocks.
      Goldman follows SOL and they upgraded the other day to BUY. It had a nice pop that day but as I told you hey are not ripe yet to resume the uptrend and one should not feel he need to chase. It sold off for the next 2 days.

      But it's getting close. Let it bounce around a little and then. I'm watching SOL as well but I will only get on just when the party begins. Not early and look like an idiot but not late either. Much like with CAGC when I issued an alert today and it moved same day. No 3/5 no BS. Real trader's skills.

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